WHAT: Czech, Slovak flash fourth quarter GDP growth

WHEN: Friday, Feb 12 at 9:00 a.m. (0800 GMT)

REUTERS FORECASTS:

* Czech Q4 GDP seen up 0.8 pct q/q, -2.8 pct y/y. Full-year GDP seen down 4.0 pct

* Slovak GDP seen up 2.2 pct q/q, -4.1 pct y/y. Full year growth seen down 5.0 percent.

By Martin Santa and Mirka Krufova

BRATISLAVA, Feb 5 (Reuters) - The Czech and Slovak economies continued a gradual but fragile recovery at the end of last year as activity picked up in the euro zone, the countries' key trading partner, Reuters polls showed on Friday.

The two central European EU member states are emerging from their deepest downturns to date, but the outlook is clouded by fears of weak export orders from key foreign markets, mainly Germany.

Both economies are expected to have grown for the third consecutive quarter, on a quarterly, seasonally adjusted, basis.

Here are key data, factors and future outlook:

WORST OF CRISIS OVER FOR CZECHS, RISKS REMAIN

Czech output was seen rising by 0.8 percent on the quarter, same as in the previous three months, a Reuters poll showed, following two quarters of decline in late 2008 and the beginning of 2009.

Net exports buoyed by reviving external demand were the economy's key driver, and it should defend its position also over coming periods, market watchers said.

Domestic consumption has been hurt by increasing unemployment, and plans to tighten the fiscal deficit to 5.3 percent of GDP this year, from 6.6 percent in 2009, is expected to put further drag on growth, with the main impact coming next year.

Fading effects of the German car scrapping scheme, which has been terminated, were expected to have a negative impact on car and car-parts makers, key export industries.

German industrial production fell sharply in December, putting the manufacturing core of Europe's largest economy on a weakened footing going further into 2010 and dealing a fresh setback to recovery hopes.

EXPORT-RELIANT SLOVAKS REBOUND, RECOVERY JUMPY

The newest euro zone member's heavily export-reliant economy was seen expanding by a strong 2.2 percent on the quarter in the final period of the last year, accelerating from a 1.6 percent rise in the previous three months.

Improved conditions in the single currency euro area leading to reviving foreign demand were key drivers behind the growth in 2009 as domestic demand took a blow from the downturn.

Slovakia's rebound, however, remains fragile as it is subject to foreign demand, linked to an expected slow, bumpy recovery in the euro area.

The economy will return to growth on the annual basis in 2010 thanks to end of de-stocking process, rising investments, but household consumption growth will probably remain muted, as unemployment remains at almost five-year highs, analysts said.

The European Commission expected Slovaks, who adopted the euro last January, to be the European Union's fastest growing member this year with a 1.9 percent rise.

For Czech GDP estimates table ..........

For Slovak GDP estimates table .........

The Czech Statistics office website ... www.czso.cz

The Slovak Statistics office website .. www.statistics.sk

All Czech economic data:

All Slovak economic data:

Central and Eastern Europe market report:

(Editing by Toby Chopra) Keywords: CZECH SLOVAKIA/GDP

(martin.santa@thomsonreuters.com; +421 2 5341 8402; Reuters Messaging: martin.santa.reuters.com@reuters.net)

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