Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Issuer Default Ratings and debt ratings of Altria Group, Inc. (Altria) and its subsidiaries as follows:
Altria
--Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB+';
--Guaranteed
bank credit facility at 'BBB+';
--Guaranteed senior unsecured debt
at 'BBB+';
--Short-term IDR at 'F2';
--Commercial paper (CP)
at 'F2'.
Philip Morris Capital Corp. (a wholly owned subsidiary of Altria)
--Long-term
IDR at 'BBB+';
--Short-term IDR at 'F2';
--CP at 'F2'.
UST LLC (a wholly owned subsidiary of Altria)
--Senior unsecured
debt at 'BBB+'.
The Rating Outlook is Stable. Altria had $13.7 billion of debt at Dec. 31, 2011.
RATING RATIONALE
--Commanding Market Share Position
Altria
Group, Inc.'s (Altria) ratings are supported by the company's commanding
market share of U.S. tobacco segments. Altria's Philip Morris USA, Inc.
(PM USA) subsidiary's Marlboro brand has an estimated market share of
42% and total cigarette market share of 49%. PM USA has maintained U.S.
market share of about 50% for several years. Altria's U.S. Smokeless
Tobacco Company (USSTC) has roughly 55% U.S. market share, driven by the
two large brands of Copenhagen and Skoal.
--Substantial Cash Flow
The ratings reflect that Altria's
operations consistently generate large cash flows. For the 2011, Altria
generated $3.6 billion of cash flow from operations (CFFO) comparable to
2010 year end when adjusted for unusual items. The company's CFFO was
negatively affected by a $200 million discretionary contribution to its
pension plans but higher than 2010 year end CFFO of $2.8 billion which
was weighed down by a one time payment of $945 million (see below for
further discussion). Altria's 2012 CFFO will be affected by a $500
million discretionary payment to its pension plans. Altria's healthy
operating margins drive the company's high operating cash flow to
revenue ratio. Manufacturing optimization has helped improve margins.
Operating margins are expected to grow further with Altria's cost
reduction efforts announced October 2011 which aim to produce $400
million of annualized savings.
--Significant Liquidity
Altria has ample liquidity which Fitch
expects will be maintained given the company's CFFO. Altria maintains a
significant cash position throughout the year to meet its annual Master
Settlement Agreement payment. Bolstering Altria's liquidity is the
company's 27% equity ownership of SABMiller plc, one of the world's
largest brewers, valued at roughly $15.2 billion as of Dec. 30, 2011.
--Shareholders Prioritized
Fitch recognizes Altria's goal to return
cash to shareholders in its ratings. The company's target dividend
payout ratio of 80% is high but typical for U.S. tobacco firms. Fitch
believes Altria's dividend reduces its flexibility since management
teams are reluctant to reduce dividends in periods of operational
weakness. However, the company's dividend is sustainable given the
consistency of CFFO. Altria also has repurchased 37.6 million shares
under its recently completed $1 billion share repurchase program
authorized in January 2011. In October 2011, the company's board
authorized another $1 billion share repurchase program under which it
repurchased 11.7 million shares at a cost of $327 million in the fourth
quarter of 2011. Altria intends to complete its current share repurchase
program by the end of 2012.
--Industry Risk Factors
Altria's ratings are lower than those of
companies with similar credit metrics, largely due to industry factors
of continued cigarette volume declines of 3% to 5%; ongoing, albeit
reduced, litigation risk; and increasing regulatory risk. Cigarette
consumers becoming more price sensitive to a point where Altria loses
pricing power would result in Fitch contemplating a negative rating
action. Altria has historically been able to offset declining volumes
with price increases to continue to grow cigarette revenue.
RATING DRIVERS
--Upgrade Not Likely
Upside to credit
protection measures is limited by Altria's reliance on the mature to
declining cigarette sector, which inhibits growth potential. Altria's
focus on returning cash to shareholders signals stable to rising debt
levels. A deceleration of cigarette volume declines or industry growth,
or material diversification outside of the tobacco industry, would be
positive for the company's ratings.
--Shareholder-Friendly Actions
A large debt-financed share buyback
or acquisition would be credit-negative. An increase in leverage to the
low 2.0 times (x) range without a reasonable expectation for lower
leverage going forward would result in a negative rating action. Fitch
would view that increase as Altria declining to maintain its credit
profile through the use of its financial flexibility afforded by its
cash flow generation and its SABMiller stake.
CREDIT MEASURES, DEBT STRUCTURE AND LIQUIDITY
--Credit Measures
Altria's
2011 total debt-to-operating EBITDA of 2.0x is in line with Fitch's
expectations. This is an increase over year end 2010 leverage of 1.8x
due to $1.5 billion of debt issued in 2011 to finance a modest share
repurchase program given the company's cash flow generation. Gross
interest coverage increased to 6.1x at the 2011 year end versus 5.8x for
the 2010 year end due to growing operating EBITDA more than offsetting
increased interest from a larger debt balance. FFO adjusted leverage
decreased to 2.7x at the 2011 year end from 3.1x at the 2010 year end.
The decrease was due largely to the cycling of a $945 million payment
made relating to an IRS ruling in 2010 (see further discussion below
related to the payment).
--Expected Performance
Fitch expects continued cigarette volume
declines in the low- to mid-single digits in 2012, since no substantial
Federal Excise Tax increase or widespread large State Excise Tax
increases are anticipated in the near term. As a result, revenues are
expected to increase in the low- to mid-single digit range. With
continued cost improvements expected from Altria, overall operating
income is forecast to increase in the mid- to high single-digit range.
Credit metrics will therefore be stable to improving depending on
Altria's plans to address the maturity of $600 million of 6 5/8% of UST
Inc. notes due July 15, 2012.
--Liquidity Position
As stated previously, Altria has ample
liquidity. On June 30, 2011, the company entered in to a new $3 billion,
five-year revolving credit facility which was undrawn at Dec. 31, 2011.
The company had no CP and $3.3 billion of cash at Dec. 31, 2011. Altria
took a charge in the second quarter totaling $627 million based on the
IRS disallowing certain tax positions taken by the company regarding
Lease-In/Lease-Out and Sale-In/Lease-Out (LILO/SILO) transactions and
the increased probability the IRS disallowances will withstand legal
challenges. Altria is contesting the IRS disallowances. Altria has made
cash payments in the past for the IRS disallowing tax treatments for
LILO/SILO transactions relating to audits for the 1996 though 2003 tax
years including a $945 million payment in 2010. The company has not made
a cash payment to date for the 2004 - 2009 tax years since the IRS has
yet to complete its audits for those years, but as early as this year
the IRS could disallow the tax positions taken in those years. Altria
may be required to make a payment for a disallowance by the IRS. Altria
is expected to have adequate internally generated liquidity to meet a
required cash outlay.
--Debt Structure
The notes of UST Inc. are structurally superior to
the notes and debentures issued by Altria Group, Inc. Fitch has chosen
not to make a distinction in the ratings given the notes in total are a
small portion of total debt, Altria has not issued notes from its UST
subsidiary since acquiring UST Inc. in January 2009, and the low risk of
default at the 'BBB+' rating level.
Additional information is available at www.fitchratings.com. The ratings above were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been compensated for the provision of the ratings.
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
--'Corporate Rating
Methodology' (Aug. 12, 2011).
Applicable Criteria and Related Research:
Corporate Rating
Methodology
http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=647229
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Contacts:
Fitch Ratings
Primary Analyst:
Christopher M. Collins,
+1-312-368-3196
Director
Fitch Inc.
70 W. Madison St.
Chicago,
IL 60602
or
Secondary Analyst:
Wesley E. Moultrie II,
CPA, +1-312-368-3186
Managing Director
or
Committee
Chairperson:
David Peterson, +1-312-368-3177
Senior Director
or
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Relations:
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