While some solar industry organizations have described this week's decision by the U.S. Commerce Department to raise tariffs on Chinese solar imports as "unprecedented," Stefan De Haan, principal analyst, Photovoltaic, at HIS, says the move came as no surprise. Indeed, while echoing other analysts' views that a negotiated settlement was unlikely, De Haan points out that Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers have already acclimated themselves to a price range of between $0.75 and $0.80 per watt. De Haan adds that Chinese and Taiwanese companies have been making efforts to reach a negotiated settlement since the beginning of the year, but adds, "from what we've been hearing, there has not been much progress. It's still possible that there will be a negotiated settlement. What the Asian side wants is a minimum input price like in the EU, this would be an ideal outcome for them, but the signs we see are not too optimistic." The Commerce Department's decision, he adds, was not a big surprise. "Rather, if they had decided to stop these duties it would have been a much bigger surprise." Nevertheless, despite looming price hikes and new strategies, like establishing manufacturing sites outside of China, De Haan stresses that at the end of the day, "Asian suppliers will all still enjoy good business because the U.S. market is at the moment the most attractive in terms of absolute growth in the world." Chinese companies are quietly evaluating their options as they await the U.S. International Trade Commission's final injury determinations, expected to be handed down next month, De Haan says. The IHS analyst adds that China's targeted manufacturers "are prepared for the case that the final outcome will be negative from their perspective in that preliminary duties will finally be confirmed and then they we will see more capacity ramping up outside of China and Taiwan to serve the U.S. market." Bienvenido a Mexico! If the ITC upholds the Commerce Department's ruling, as expected, De Haan says Chinese companies will likely set up shop closer to the U.S. border. "We know that several players are evaluating Mexico, for example. We'll hear a lot more public announcements once there is a final decision. Mexico is definitely the hottest region there, they already have a supply chain there and it's close, it's one of the countries where it makes sense to go to." In addition, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) models like that of Chinese PV manufacturer ReneSola, which serves the European market largely through its non-Chinese OEM operations, are certain to become increasingly popular, De Haan adds. "This will also be a solution to serve the U.S. market - having capacity that is not owned by the suppliers themselves but by OEM partners." One key ...Den vollständigen Artikel lesen ...