Centaur Media - Strong Q421 shows MAP23 progress

Centaur's year-end trading update indicates the group had a good Q421 and FY21 results will show revenue and EBITDA margin ahead of consensus. We lift our FY21 revenue estimate by £1.0m to £38.5m, which represents 19% growth over FY20, and EBITDA by 5% to £5.9m (+55% y o y). Our increased FY22 projections reflect this higher base. Year-end cash of £13.1m (excluding lease liabilities) was also ahead of our previous forecast of £11.7m. We see management's MAP23 targets as demanding but achievable, with the valuation overstating the execution risk.

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