Ahead of its AGM today, NanoRepro published group revenue guidance for the short-, medium- and long-term on Friday, providing greater visibility on the expected growth trajectory of its multi-brand health platform. In detail:
FY26 guidance confirms double-digit growth. Management guided for ~ € 18m in revenue, slightly below our projection of € 19m (eNuW), but still confirming solid double-digit growth of ~ 12.5% yoy. Growth is expected to be largely organic, as the current inorganic contribution from ALPHABIOL should remain modest at ~ € 0.2m (eNuW) in FY26e.
FY28 guidance slightly beats our expectations. Management expects ~ € 28m in revenue in FY28, slightly above our estimate of € 27.1m (eNuW). Based on FY25 sales of € 16m, this implies a strong ~ 20.5% CAGR (FY25e-FY28e), compared to 19.2% CAGR embedded in estimates. Importantly, the guidance confirms the strong medium-term growth trajectory of the current product portfolio despite the slightly softer-than-expected growth anticipated for FY26.
FY30 guidance suggests additional M&A optionality. The long-term revenue target of € 40m exceeds our current estimate of € 35.5m (eNuW) by € 4.5m. While management has not provided a split between organic and inorganic growth, we expect the majority of the targeted increase to be organically driven. But given NanoRepro's track record of adding new brands to its platform and management's repeatedly highlighted acquisition ambitions, we expect this to include ~ € 2-3m (eNuW) of revenue from future M&A.
Notably, at its AGM NanoRepro is seeking shareholder approval for an additional € 1.9m in authorized capital, which would bring total authorized capital to € 7.1m, equivalent to 50% of its current share capital. Importantly, the authorization explicitly allows shares to be issued as consideration for acquisitions, providing additional flexibility to pursue opportunistic M&A. Hence, we view the € 40m target as combining a stronger organic growth trajectory with additional M&A optionality.
Adjusting our forecast to reflect the stronger mid- to long-term growth outlook. Taking into account the slightly softer near-term growth implied by the company's FY26 guidance, but stronger mid- to long-term growth trajectory, we adjust our revenue forecasts accordingly. We lower our FY26e revenue estimate to € 18.1m (eNuW; previously € 19m) while raising our forecasts to € 28m (eNuW; previously € 27.1m) in FY28e and € 37m (eNuW; previously € 35.5m) in FY30e.
New guidance reinforces positive expectations for the current portfolio. Despite slightly softer growth in FY26, the new guidance provides greater visibility on NanoRepro's medium- to long-term growth trajectory, with the € 40m FY30 target implying a strong ~ 20% sales CAGR from FY25. Our revised estimates remain somewhat more conservative, as they currently reflect organic growth only, implying a ~ 18% CAGR to € 37m in FY30e, while potential future acquisitions provide additional upside. Overall, we view the new guidance as supportive of NanoRepro's investments case. We reiterate BUY at an unchanged PT of € 4.40, based on DCF.
ISIN: DE0006577109
