(Oslo, Norway, 13 October 2026) - Electricity demand grows strongly and becomes increasingly important for economic growth and energy security globally, particularly in countries and regions that depend on fossil fuel imports. Renewable energy continues to expand and will become the dominant source of electricity by 2035, driven by solar and wind power facilitated by expansion of power grids and storage solutions such as batteries.
These are the main trends in Statkraft's Green Transition Scenarios report 2026, which explores four possible scenarios for the global energy system towards 2050.
- In a turbulent world marked by growing geopolitical tensions, trade barriers and major regional differences, electricity is increasingly becoming the foundation for competitiveness, energy security and industrial growth, says Torjus Folsland Bolkesjø, Head of Global Energy Drivers in Statkraft and co-author of the report.
Although the Report's scenarios differ significantly in terms of pace, costs and geopolitical developments, they point to the same long-term conclusion: Electricity will play a crucial role in the global economy. Global electricity consumption grows by 50 to more than 100 percent by 2050. At the same time, growth in global energy consumption slows as electric vehicles, heat pumps and other electric technologies replace less efficient fossil fuel use.
- The next phase of the energy transition is not only about building more renewable power generation. It is about using this clean electricity and at the same time developing the grids, storage, and flexibility needed for power systems with an ever-higher share of renewable energy to function. Countries that succeed in electrifying their economies while expanding domestic renewable energy generation will become less dependent on fossil fuel imports. This strengthens energy security and supports industrial competitiveness, says Bolkesjø.
Electricity is more efficient than fossil energy
Electric vehicles and heat pumps will increase in scale and use energy far more efficiently than fossil-based alternatives. Electric vehicles use 60-90 per cent less energy than vehicles with internal combustion engines, while heat pumps can reduce energy use for heating by 50-80 per cent.
- When we replace fossil energy with efficient electric solutions, we get more transport and heat from each unit of energy. This reduces total energy use, emissions and costs, says Head Analyst and co-author of the report, Mari Grooss Viddal
1.5°C target seems out of reach
Statkraft's scenarios show that global energy-related CO2 emissions are close to their peak and will decline towards 2050. However, the reduction ranges from 20 to 56 per cent from today's level, depending on the pace of electrification, renewable energy deployment and climate policy. Even the greenest scenario is not sufficient on its own to meet the 1.5°C target, while the worst scenario points to a temperature increase of below 2.7°C, with a 67 per cent probability, unless emission reductions are intensified after 2050.
Progress continues in Europe
The report highlights Europe's progress in expanding renewable power generation, while identifying electrification, grid development and system integration as the next major challenges in transforming the entire energy system.
Renewable energy accounted for 48 per cent of EU power generation in 2025, up from 38 per cent in 2021. However, the EU still imports 57 per cent of the energy it uses, keeping energy security and competitiveness high on the political agenda. At the same time, electrification reduces energy demand because it is more efficient than fossil energy.
- The question for Europe is no longer whether renewable energy will play a greater role. The challenge is to expand power grids, electricity storage and flexibility quickly enough to support an increasingly electrified economy, says Viddal.
Data centres and artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence is driving rapid growth in data centres and electricity consumption. Towards 2050, data centres account for 6-9% of EU's total electricity demand in our scenarios. At the same time, the outlook is uncertain and will depend on factors including the pace of AI adoption, more energy-efficient chips and software, grid access and local acceptance.
- Artificial intelligence could become a significant new driver of global electricity demand. At the same time, more efficient technologies may moderate growth. The pace at which new power generation and grid capacity can be developed will be decisive for where and how quickly new data centres are established, says Bolkesjø.
Norway faces a reduced power surplus
Norway has one of the world's cleanest power systems, with 98 per cent renewable power, but the development of new generation is progressing slowly. In 2050, annual Norwegian power generation ranges from 176 TWh to 253 TWh across the scenarios, largely depending on the pace of future wind power development.
Since 2021, Norway has added around 1 GW of new generation capacity, compared with 10 GW in Sweden.
- Norway's challenge is not a lack of resources. The challenge is whether new generation and grid capacity can be developed quickly enough to meet rising demand and maintain industrial competitiveness, says Viddal.
Towards 2050, our modelling and analysis show that onshore wind, supported by flexible hydropower, can provide large volumes of electricity in Norway and the Nordic region at competitive costs in a European context. Hydropower remains dominant, accounting for between 60 and 80 per cent of the Norwegian power mix in 2050 across the scenarios, while improved internal grid capacity and interconnectors play an important role in maintaining security of supply.
About Statkraft's Green Transition Scenarios:
The Green Transition Scenarios energy report provides forecasts for the development of the energy transition from 2026 to 2050 across four scenarios, with a focus on global, European, and Norwegian perspectives. The report is published annually and is based on insights and analyses from Statkraft experts who work with energy infrastructure, analysis, systems, and trading in more than 20 countries.
Read the full report: Green Transition Scenarios - Statkraft's flagship energy report on the energy transition
For further information:
Press contacts:
• Marte Lerberg Kopstad, tel: +47 995 22 026, e-mail: martelerberg.kopstad@statkraft.com
• Torbjørn Steen, tel: +47 911 66 888, e-mail: torbjorn.steen@statkraft.com
or www.statkraft.com
About Statkraft
Statkraft is a leading company in hydropower internationally and Europe's largest generator of renewable energy. The Group produces hydropower, wind power, solar power, and gas-fired power. Statkraft is a global company in energy market operations. Statkraft has around 6,200 employees in 20 countries.
Attachments
- GTS report
- Wind power Brazil
