Original-Research: Eckert & Ziegler SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Eckert & Ziegler SE
Q3 preview: earnings to regain momentum Q3 should show firmer earnings momentum at EUZ. Recovering Isotope Products profitability is set to drive Q3 earnings growth, with rising Lu-177 sales and licence income adding momentum into year-end. Following recent share price weakness, the stock trades at c. 7x FY26e EV/EBITDA, effectively pricing in no growth despite EUZ's position as an independent supplier to the expanding radiopharma market (eNuW). Therapeutic isotope demand supports the growth outlook. Market forecasts from Telix imply c. 23% CAGR for Lu-177 and c. 45% for Ac-225 through 2035, reaching risk-adjusted market values of $ 2.1bn and $ 1.4bn. These market potential figures reinforce the therapeutic isotope upside embedded in EUZ. From a low base (eNuW: low single-digit €m in 2025e for Lu-177 plus Ac-225 combined, excl. licence fees), EUZ stands to benefit as volumes industrialise, given its proven supplier positioning. We model € 25m sales each for Lu-177 and Ac-225 by 2030e, supporting the long-term growth angle. Telix's planned acquisition of ITM has also put the future role of independent isotope suppliers in focus. We do not expect every big pharma group to take isotope production in-house. Consistent purity, GMP validation and reliable output at scale create high barriers to entry. Some will accept the capital and execution risk to secure supply and capture manufacturing margins. Yet vertical integration has not stopped CATL, HENSOLDT or TSMC from becoming leaders in their respective markets. Acquisitions can also bring established suppliers straight into big pharma's supply chains: Lilly acquired POINT with a ten-year EUZ Lu-177 supply agreement already in place (eNuW). Medical's growth drivers to remain intact in H2. Lilly is likely to drive EUZ's near-term Lu-177 ramp-up: we expect FY26 sales of € 7-8m (vs. c. € 2m in FY25), weighted towards H2, with c. € 15m realistic in FY27 (eNuW). We see generator growth holding at c. 10% CAGR over the coming years despite Curium's entry, as expanding use of Ga-68 diagnostics supports demand. New order wins should also point to a recovery in plant engineering after a weaker H1 (eNuW). Q3 should mark a return to adjusted EBIT growth. Group sales look set to increase 4.6% yoy to € 78.8m (eCons: € 79.3m). Adj. EBIT should outpace sales growth, rising 18.2% yoy to € 18.2m (eCons: € 18.8m), implying a 23.1% margin (+2.6pp yoy). Medical is projected to generate sales of c. € 40m (+2% yoy) and adj. EBIT of c. € 11m (+43% yoy; eNuW). IP sales are expected to reach c. € 39m (+7.5% yoy), with adj. EBIT recovering 23% qoq to c. € 8m (+1% yoy; eNuW). Importantly, our Q3 estimates contain no licence revenues, leaving an additional earnings driver for Q4. We expect at least € 3m at close to full margin, with up to € 5.6m possible and any remainder moving into 2027e (eNuW). BUY, PT € 21.50, based on DCF. You can download the research here: eckert-and-ziegler-se-2026-10-19-previewreview-en-17e18 For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||
2417640 19.10.2026 CET/CEST
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