Original-Research: EBRO MOTORS GROUP EV SA - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to EBRO MOTORS GROUP EV SA
Strong H1 results; higher Chery volumes expected; PT up EBRO published strong H1 results, with revenue nearly tripling yoy to € 309.7m on sell-in volumes of 12,612 vehicles, excluding Rent-A-Car deliveries under buyback agreements. Market share reached 2.2% in 9M'26 versus 2.1% in H1'26, supported by its SUV offering and expanding commercial network. EBRO now operates 105 POS and targets 110 by year-end, up from 85 at FY'25-end. EBITDA improved to € 1.7m from € -18.8m in H1'25, although the 0.6% margin still reflects low factory utilisation. Following the introduction of the M1 line in June, annual capacity can reach c.130k vehicles across three shifts, versus expected FY'26 assembly of c.32k units. Additional Chery volumes offer substantial scope for improved fixed-cost absorption. Free cash flow was € -139m in H1'26, reflecting c.€ 56m invested in Rent-A-Car buyback vehicles, industrial capex and seasonal working capital requirements. NWC increased to € 29m from € -21m at FY'25-end as inventory was built ahead of summer demand and the August factory shutdown. We expect this seasonal build-up to unwind towards year-end. FY'26 guidance targets revenue of € 650-700m (+82-96% yoy) and sell-in volumes of 26-29k units (+83-104% yoy). Pricing and PHEV positioning investments should keep margins thin, consistent with our 0.3% adjusted EBITDA margin forecast. EBRO also flagged a potential H2 CO2 provision for the 2025-27 compliance period, which we estimate at c.€ 7.5m. EU hybrid import restrictions strengthen the strategic value of local assembly. As discussed in our latest update, the agreed 350k annual quota compares with expected China-built HEV/PHEV imports of c.800k in 2026. According to press reports, implementation could begin as early as December, with EU-assembled vehicles excluded from the import quota. Preparations to introduce the electric JAECOO 5 and OMODA 5 in late 2026 and early 2027 give EBRO an operational foundation for broader Chery allocations. Our ramp-up remains prudent pending regulatory and quota clarity. We raise our Chery assembly forecasts to at least 25k vehicles in 2027, from 6k previously, and to 50k annually from 2028, versus 40k previously. We see an increasing need for Chery to shift production to Barcelona, with the resulting earnings upside outweighing the slight adjustment to our FY'26 revenue forecast. Chery's strong commercial performance this year could support volumes exceeding 80k annually in the near term, a scenario explored on the following page. These revisions lift our PT to € 16.50 from € 14.50; we reiterate BUY. With the hybrid import cap potentially taking effect as early as December and preparations for the initial Chery models already under way, we expect further news on an accelerated OMODA and JAECOO assembly ramp-up in Barcelona over the coming weeks. You can download the research here: ebro-motors-group-ev-sa-2026-10-30-previewreview-en-e97fe For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||
2425070 30.10.2026 CET/CEST
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