Flughafen Wien will report Q3 results on 19 November. We expect cost discipline and continued growth in Malta to cushion weaker traffic and lower airport charges in Vienna. The results should reinforce our view that FY26 guidance remains too cautious, even with a subdued winter already embedded in our estimates.
Malta continues to cushion Vienna's traffic decline. Reported group passenger numbers fell c. 1% yoy to 13.1m in Q3. Vienna declined c. 6% yoy to 9.2m, reflecting less low-cost carrier capacity and Middle East disruption. Malta grew c. 13% yoy to 3.5m, supported by additional airline capacity. Together with Vienna's lower airport charges, this should lead to Q3 sales of € 308m, down 4.1% yoy (eNuW).
Cost discipline should protect profitability. EBITDA is expected to come in at € 160m, down 3.3% yoy, implying a 0.4pp margin improvement to 51.9%. Lower staffing levels should continue to cushion wage inflation. The benefit was already visible in Q2, when personnel expenses fell 2.8% yoy. Malta's higher traffic should provide additional operating leverage. Net profit after minorities is seen at € 86.3m, down 5.5% yoy.
The guidance still implies an excessive Q4 slowdown. Against our 9M EBITDA estimate of € 387m, the € 425m full-year target leaves just € 38m for Q4. This implies a 58% decline versus Q4 25, adjusted for the € 55.9m third-runway charge (Q4 25 one-off). Our new FY26 EBITDA estimate of € 440m implies € 53m in Q4, c. 40% above the guidance-implied level, yet still conservatively down 42% yoy on an underlying basis.
Resilient demand should cushion winter capacity cuts. Austrian Airlines' 3% Q3 passenger growth across its network despite higher fares highlights underlying demand strength. Higher fuel costs have prompted the airline to cut network-wide winter capacity by 5%, with Ryanair also reducing its group winter plans. These adjustments fit the subdued winter already assumed in the forecasts. FWAG may need to offer higher incentives to retain airline capacity in Vienna, tempering group EBITDA margin expansion in 2027e (9M 26e: +1.6pp yoy, eNuW). In Malta, where winter frequency additions largely offset reductions, structural demand growth should support higher seat load factors and further passenger growth.
The 2027 recovery has drivers beyond passenger growth. Inflation-linked tariff adjustments should support revenue after the 2026 reset. T3 South remains on time and on budget for a Q2 2027 opening, expanding Vienna's retail and gastronomy space by c. 50% and adding new lounges. This should lift hospitality revenue per passenger (eNuW: +17% yoy in 2027e). Meanwhile, flight-tax relief remains undecided, with Finance Minister Marterbauer ruling out unfunded abolition on 9 November. Political support for a reduction is growing. Any cut would improve Vienna's cost competitiveness.
The high-quality infrastructure case remains intact. FWAG owns its Vienna infrastructure outright, with no concession expiry. Aviation, retail and property income provide a diversified earnings base with long-term exposure to growing air travel. Net cash of € 265m and an equity ratio of 72% at H1 provide financial flexibility to fund expansion and dividends (c. 3.4% yield).
Action: FY26 EPS raised by c. 2% on better traffic assumptions and 2027 D&A slightly increased for T3 South's expected Q2 opening.
BUY, with unchanged PT at € 59, based on DCF.
ISIN: AT00000VIE62