tonies reported Q3 sales of € 180m, +28% yoy (cc: +27%), slightly above market estimates (eCons: € 175m). 9M sales reached € 423m (+33% yoy; cc: +35%), i.e. ~56% of the FY guidance of >€ 760m. Part of the Q3 strength is timing: Pokémon, Bluey, the Hasbro games and the Toniebox Lite (so far Walmart only) all hit the shelves in Q3 in most markets, earlier than last year's launch calendar, which moved retailer sell-in from Q4 into Q3.
Figurines drive the quarter, Lite widens the funnel. Tonies sales rose 35% yoy to € 131m (eCons: € 125m), while Tonieboxes grew 13% yoy to € 44m (eNuW: € 43m) against a tough TB2 launch base. Over 9M, box sales are up 37%, which keeps expanding the installed base for future figurine sales. Bluey stands out: in North America it ranked among the top 20 figurines by listening time within two months. Tonieplay extends the age range: more than 65% of Hasbro game players are aged 5+, and they listen more per week than the average user. TB Lite attracts new families rather than cannibalising: ~60% of units were activated in new households, at a playtime similar to TB2. Its national US roll-out across all retailers is only starting now and is thus mainly a Q4 driver.
International share climbs to 63%. NA grew 42% yoy to € 73m (cc: +40%; 9M: +50% cc; eCons: € 70m), RoW 37% to € 39m (eCons: € 38m) and DACH 11% to € 68m (eCons: € 67m). The latter should be regarded as strong sign taking into account the already high market penetration. Markets outside DACH now generate 63% of 9M sales (+4.4pp yoy). In the UK, heavier brand investment pays off: a London-wide campaign generated 110m+ impressions, and six weeks of TikTok Lives delivered a 4.5x revenue uplift vs. the prior six weeks. LATAM is next: tonies has appointed a Head of LATAM (former MD LATAM at Mattel), a clear sign that the 2027 market entry is moving into execution. We see high potential, and the bilingual Spanish Tonies range built for US Hispanic families already offers a content base for the launch.
Mix shifts back towards figurines. Tonies made up 73% of Q3 sales (Q3 25: 69%), helped by the content launches, which should support gross margin in H2. Further cost pressure persists but is managed well. Especially memory chips remain the single largest burden, yet supply is secured well into 2027 and management sees no incremental risk. US tariff refunds sit in cash but are fully offset by provisions, i.e. no P&L effect.
Single-digit Q4 growth sufficient to hit guidance. To reach >€ 760m, Q4 needs roughly € 337m, only +8% yoy, NA requires +15% cc for its >30% target. The comp is tougher, as Q4 25 still included TB2 catch-up box sales, and the earlier launches have shifted some volume into Q3. Holiday indicators look supportive, however: in DACH, the number of Christmas Tonies sold doubled yoy for the second year running and both Advent calendar figurines are sold out, while 3,000+ additional endcaps at Target (Bluey) and Walmart (Lite) back the US season. The 9-11% adj. EBITDA margin guidance was confirmed, with Q4 again carrying the bulk of annual profit.
BUY with an unchanged PT of € 18.50 (DCF).
ISIN: LU2333563281