Analytica: Iceland Leading Indicator - Economic growth picking up steam?

REYKJAVIK, Iceland, 2017-11-16 09:00 CET (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --
The Analytica Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for Iceland rose in October for
the third month in a row - this time by 0.7 per cent. The values for several
earlier months were revised upwards. There are now tentative indications that
the current CLI rise indicates the renewal of faster growth. 

Five of the six components rise on the previous month. The largest
contributions are due to a rise in the value of fish catches, merchandise
imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. Also noteworthy is the
positive contribution of the growth in tourist numbers. The long-term trend of
some important CLI components remains strong. The main risk factors continue to
include some external factors mainly in relation to the geopolitical situation.
However, there is now reduced risk due to a prolonged government crisis. 

Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity
relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by
Gross Domestic Product published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The
calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD. 

There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation
adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI
World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of
Consumer Confidence. For October, four of the six underlying components rise
year on year. Also, five of the six components rise on the previous month. 

Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The
value for October rises to 101.2 or by 0.7 per cent. This value serves as an
indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. April 2018. A
value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long-term trend. 

                                               
Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2016-2017             
                                               
                     Change in %     Indication
           Index  on month    YOY    for month 
2016                                           
October    100.8   -0.2  %   0.1  %  April 2017
November   100.5   -0.3  %  -0.3  %  May       
December   100.1   -0.4  %  -0.9  %  June      
2017                                           
January     99.8   -0.3  %  -1.3  %  July      
February    99.9    0.0  %  -1.3  %  August    
March      100.0    0.1  %  -1.2  %  Sept.     
April       99.8   -0.1  %  -1.3  %  Oct.      
May         99.5   -0.3  %  -1.5  %  Nov.      
June        99.2   -0.3  %  -1.8  %  Dec.      
July        99.2   -0.1  %  -1.8  %  Jan. 2018 
August      99.6    0.5  %  -1.4  %  Feb.      
September  100.4    0.8  %  -0.5  %  March     
October    101.2    0.7  %   0.4  %  April     
                                               

The November Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on Dec.
18-19, 2017. 

         Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson
         Tel. [phone] - email: [e-mail]