As announced yesterday, B&C's voluntary takeover offer resulted in the acquisition of 1.0m shares, increasing its stake in Semperit from 57.3% to 63.4% of the share capital. Settlement is to be completed by June 26 at the latest, with no extension period applicable. Our take in detail:
Outcome in line with expectations. We view the development as broadly unsurprising. While the € 15.0 per share offer represented a 25% premium to the pre-announcement price, it remained undemanding compared to our estimation of Semperit's intrinsic value. The offer implied only roughly 5.4x EV/EBITDA on our FY26e (BV/share stands at ~ € 20). As a result, we did not expect the offer to attract broad participation from long-term-focused shareholders.
B&C expressed satisfaction with the outcome, highlighting that the offer allowed it to increase its stake more efficiently than through regular market purchases. We view the level of acceptance to suggest that a meaningful portion of the shareholder base continues to see value beyond the offer price.
Investment case remaining intact. Importantly, we do not expect the increased ownership stake to have any material implications for Semperit's strategy, governance framework or capital allocation. The increased stake is not seen to alter the control situation or the strategic direction of the business. We continue to believe that the share price does not yet reflect further upside potential from Semperit's positioning ahead of a multi-year operational improvement cycle. Neither the cost savings benefits nor the revenue recovery potential are currently captured in the trailing earnings.
Hence, we reiterate our BUY recommendation and maintain our PT of € 21.5 per share.
ISIN: AT0000785555
