Topic: DBAG adjusted its FY26 NAV guidance to reflect lower valuation multiples of listed peers, while raising the EBITA outlook for Fund Investment Services. In detail:
FY26 NAV per share is now seen at € 32-36 (old: € 36-40, eNuW old: € 38.5). Gross losses on measurement and disposal for H1 (Jan-Jun) are expected at some € -50m vs a € 20m gain in the prior-year period. Importantly, this is a purely valuation-driven, non-cash effect: as DBAG's portfolio is marked to market against listed comparables at each reporting date, the recent de-rating of peer multiples, presumably most visible in the software and industrial holdings, mechanically translates into a lower NAV. This says nothing about the operational health of the portfolio companies or the quality of the underlying equity stories. Notably, such multiple-driven swings work in both directions; a recovery of small/mid-cap valuations would reverse the effect.
Fund Investment Services guidance raised. FY26 EBITA in the fee-based segment is now expected at € 9-11m (old: € 5-9m, eNuW old: € 6.5m), as fewer divestments imply that fee-bearing assets remain under management for longer. This once again highlights the stability and visibility of the recurring management-fee stream, which nicely cushions the inherent mark-to-market volatility of the investment portfolio, a key pillar of our investment case.
Fundraising remains on track. The raising of the new fund generation should be unaffected by the announcement, as LP commitments are based on DBAG's decades-long track record of realized returns across cycles, not on interim mark-to-market movements in the listed vehicle. A successful closing would serve as the next positive catalyst as it would significantly increase the company's financial firepower.
Attractive shareholder returns provide downside comfort. DBAG only recently completed its € 20m buyback program (799k shares, c. 4.25% of share capital, at an avg. of € 25, a clear discount to NAV and hence accretive), and a new authorization from the 2026 AGM is in place. On top, the base dividend of € 1.00 per share implies a yield of c. 4.6% at current prices. With the shares trading at a c. 35% discount even to the midpoint of the lowered NAV guidance, a renewed buyback would be value-accretive, in our view.
In sum, we regard the adjustment as a technical reflection of current market sentiment rather than a blow to the case: portfolio operations look intact, the fee business is running ahead of plan, fundraising remains on course and shareholder returns are compelling.
BUY with a € 36 PT (old: € 39) based on SOTP (DCF for Fund Services + discount to our NAV per share estimate at year-end).
ISIN: DE000A1TNUT7
