Q2 26 delivered a step change, with EBIT of € 19.1m (Q2 25: € 4.9m) driven by a higher AuM base, performance fees and an improved interest result. Guidance was confirmed but looks conservative, hence we raise FY26e EBIT to € 116m, c. 10% above the mid-point (previously: € 113m). In detail:
Growth accelerated at group level, with sales up 14.9% yoy to € 257m after +4.3% in Q1 and flat yoy in Q4 25. The EBIT margin widened by 5pp yoy to 7.1%, reflecting operating leverage and positive mix in a seasonally weaker quarter.
Wealth revenues grew 21% yoy to € 144m, with performance fees behind less than a third of the increase. Wealth management rose € 22m yoy to € 111m (+24% yoy), of which only € 6.4m came from the step-up in performance fees to € 8m (Q2 25: € 1.6m) and the balance from the underlying business on an 8% higher AuM base. A further € 3.6m of carried interest was booked in other income, but was mostly offset by personnel bonuses and hence almost EBIT-neutral. Real estate brokerage rose 44% yoy to € 11m, largely reflecting phasing following a 28% decline in Q1, leaving H1 up 7% yoy. Loans & mortgages (-16% yoy) stayed soft due to low application volumes. Interest income returned to growth at € 20m (+3% yoy) as the rate comp eased, and the ECB's move to 2.25% should support interest income into H2.
Life & Health returned to growth, with revenues up 6% yoy to € 67m after -1% yoy in Q1. Old-age provision revenue increased 6% yoy to € 52m. Health insurance grew 7% yoy to € 17m, supported by rising advisory demand amid debates over Germany's healthcare system.
Property & Casualty delivered a fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, up 12% yoy to € 41m. Managed non-life premium volume reached a record € 865m, growing 10% yoy against the 5.2% GDV expects for the German market this year, implying continued market share gains. This premium base is largely recurring and benefits from inflation-linked adjustments, underpinning revenue visibility into H2 and FY27.
The confirmed € 100-110m guidance rests on an H2 that recent history does not support. H2 would contribute just 40% to 45% of full-year EBIT, against a five-year average of 52%. In absolute terms this means € 40-50m versus € 54m adj. EBIT in H2 25, so even the top end asks for a c. 9% yoy decline at a time when the AuM base is 8% higher yoy, managed non-life premiums are 10% higher and net interest rose 15% yoy in H1. One reason is that management assumes no further performance fees at all, while we model € 6m at a 66% incremental margin. Even so, our € 116m implies an H2 share of only 48% and c. 5% underlying H2 EBIT growth once performance fees are stripped from both periods (eNuW).
To sum up, MLP combines a c. 5% dividend yield with a 72% recurring revenue share and an adj. EBIT CAGR of c. 15% into 2028e (eNuW). Even our above-guidance EBIT estimate of € 116m rests on modest underlying H2 assumptions, making a guidance hike in Q3 reasonable.
BUY, unchanged PT € 12, based on Residual Income.
ISIN: DE0006569908
