Original-Research: Verbio SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Verbio SE
CMD: Investment case confirmed, US upside emerging VERBIO's Capital Markets Day (CMD) confirms our investment case, with additional upside from US tax incentives making the medium-term outlook even more compelling. Following strong FY25/26 results, which confirmed the earnings turnaround (+9.5pp yoy in EBITDA margin to 10.4%), management illustrated the group's normalised earnings potential, highlighted progress in renewable chemicals and reinforced its focus on cash generation. Key takeaways: Illustrative mid-cycle EBITDA of c.€ 300m supports our estimates. Management presented down-, mid- and up-cycle EBITDA scenarios of € 130m, € 300m and € 500m, respectively. The mid-cycle scenario assumes German GHG quota prices of € 400/t (in line with current levels), normalised biofuel spreads and full utilisation of existing assets (vs only 70% in bioethanol and 65% in US RNG in FY25/26, the latter reflecting Nevada only). This broadly matches our FY30/31-FY31/32 adjusted EBITDA estimates of c.€ 290-300m p.a., including a growing contribution from renewable chemicals (eNuW: >80% utilisation), but excluding potential CO2 capture benefits at Schwedt. US incentives provide meaningful additional upside. Management sees US$ 30-50m in annual underlying US EBITDA potential from higher utilisation and biogas integration, broadly consistent with our assumptions (eNuW: c.80% ethanol utilisation and 25-35% biogas integration at South Bend). This operating contribution is already reflected in the group's normalised earnings potential, whereas incremental 45Z and 45Q tax credits for lower-carbon fuel production and CO2 capture are excluded. Management illustrated theoretical gross annual 45Z credits of US$ 13-130m at 90% utilisation, depending on carbon intensity and before potential value sharing. The programme runs through 2029, with potential retroactive claims from 2025. Final US regulatory guidance expected in November should improve visibility. Renewable chemicals progressing towards commercialisation. With the first commercial expansion stage operational, VERBIO has delivered over 130 product samples across seven application segments, including lubricants, personal and home care, surfactants and polymers. Technical approval rates reach 90% in certain applications, supporting the transition towards initial commercial volumes and a growing earnings contribution. Shift towards cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. Following a substantial investment cycle, more disciplined capital allocation and higher asset utilisation should support stronger cash generation. Capex has fallen from € 203m in FY22/23 to € 87m in FY25/26 (FY26/27e: c.€ 55m, eNuW), while monetisation of accumulated GHG quotas should further support deleveraging (eNuW: € 220m in cash proceeds). A minimum dividend of € 0.20/sh. is envisaged through the cycle, ahead of discretionary growth investments. eNuW: BUY reiterated; PT unchanged at € 41. We leave FY26/27 estimates unchanged while increasing FY27/28 and FY28/29 EBITDA by € 10m each (+3%), reflecting a conservative initial 45Z contribution. We also incorporate c.€ 45m of additional cash tax payments in FY26/27 relating to prior-year earnings, temporarily weighing on FCF and increasing projected net debt. These adjustments leave our € 41 PT unchanged, based on the average FY27/28-FY28/29 FCF yield. You can download the research here: verbio-se-2026-10-09-update-en-38253 For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||
2413036 09.10.2026 CET/CEST
© 2026 EQS Group
