Original-Research: Rainbow Tours S.A. - from East Value Research GmbH
Classification of East Value Research GmbH to Rainbow Tours S.A.
Although we believe that Rainbow Tours (RBW) offers the best exposure to the promising travel sectors of Poland and Romania -the two largest CEE countries - the company, like its Western peers, is currently negatively impacted by the conflict in the Middle East. According to IATA, due to the Iran war that started on February 28, 2026, average weekly jet fuel prices in Europe/CIS are 127.2% above the prior year's average. This has most likely already started to weigh on RBW, as in our view the company typically hedges fuel costs 6-12 months in advance. Additionally, the PLN is c. 4% and 8% weaker y-o-y against the EUR and USD, respectively, which is highly relevant when RBW reserves hotels and airlines for planned holiday trips. Moreover, due to high uncertainty, a larger share of clients is booking cheaper last-minute trips. In our view, despite 6.6% higher bookings for the summer season in Poland, RBW's Q3/26E results were also negatively impacted by lower-than-expected gross margins in Romania; with prel. Q3 revenues of PLN 2.39bn (+13.8% y-o-y), we forecast an EBITDA of PLN 160.4m (-24.1%), and a net income of PLN 121.4m (-24.1%). We expect that in Q4/26E and H1/27E unfavorable fuel costs and FX rates will continue to have an impact on RBW's results. Despite lower profitability estimates, our 12-months PT (80% DCF, 20% peer group) remains unchanged at PLN 204.70 due to a higher net cash figure and peer-group-based FV. In our view, for long-term, dividend-oriented investors, RBW remains an attractive pick. H1/26 results In Jan-June 2026, RBW generated 10.4% higher revenues y-o-y of PLN 2bn. Despite stronger competition, the largest Touristic segment contributed PLN 1.96bn (+10.1% y-o-y) of revenues and a 14.3% gross margin (H1/25: 16%). Foreign revenues within the segment, which reflect 70% Romanian subsidiary Paralela 45 Turism that has been consolidated since August 2025, increased c. 5x to PLN 105.9m. The Hotels segment saw revenues +17.5% to PLN 22.4m (gross margin: -9.4% vs. -20.1% in H1/25), whereby profitability was likely impacted by costs related to preparation for the summer season. A 1.6% lower gross margin on group level and 20.2% higher administration expenses y-o-y following, we believe, the expansion in Romania resulted in a 27.3% lower EBIT y-o-y of PLN 74.9m (3.8% margin vs. 5.7% in H1/25). Consequently, net operating cash flow declined by 31.3% to PLN 162m. Nevertheless, net cash went up to PLN 436m from PLN 154.2m at the end of Q1/26 due to client prepayments. You can download the research here: RainbowTours_Update_02112026 For additional information visit our website: https://eastvalueresearch.com/ Contact for questions: Adrian Kowollik Tel. +49 30 20609082 Email: ak@eastvalueresearch.com The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||||
2426134 02.11.2026 CET/CEST
© 2026 EQS Group
