Yesterday, BVB published preliminary Q1 figures, holding top-line stable yoy despite the 2025 Club World Cup effect. Sales came in flat yoy (+0.4%) at € 107m (eNuW: € 104m), but underlying growth was 12.1% when stripping out the CWC effect. The driver of this is partly self-evident, as BVB had 4 home games in Q1 vs 2 the year before, pushing Match Operations sales by 63.3% to € 8.0m and Conference, Catering and miscellaneous by 44.9% to € 12.9m. The latter should have been affected as well by player release compensation in connection with the World Cup. Positively, Advertising growth accelerated to 4.5% putting the segment at € 41.1m (FY25/26: +2.8%). In our view, new partners like Lenovo as well as the clubs Japan tour should have been the main drivers.
EBITDA came in at € 40.4m (eNuW: € 38.2m), down 25.6% yoy. However, the headline figure reads much worse than it is, as the single explanation for the decline is reduced net transfer income (-62.4% to € 19.9m). Last years departure of Jamie Gittens alone generated an estimated gross fee of € 56m, while this years total figure was at € 33.7m. Looking at EBITDA ex transfers, we thus see a strong step up from € 1.4m to € 20.5m, driven mainly be reduced personnel expenses (-20.3% yoy; eNuW: mostly CWC bonus absence) and other expenses (-10.2%; eNuW: absence of CWC travel expenses).
On this basis, management confirmed the FY net profit guidance of € 0-10m, which basically implies negative net income in Q2-Q4. Given the summer transfer window, this seasonality would not be out of the ordinary, which is why we continue to play it conservative and stay within the range (eNuW: € 4.4m). However, should the BVB be able to perform a deep run into the UCL knock-out phase or generate higher-than-usual transfer income in the winter window, an outperformance would be clearly in the cards.
On the pitch, BVB had a stellar start into the season being undefeated to date after a 2-2 draw away at main rivals Bayern last weekend. After matchday 8, the team is level on points with Bayern at the top of the table. While we do not expect the team to go all the way at the end of the season, qualification for next seasons UCL campaign should not be in question when looking at the current form. In the cup, BVB advanced to the round of 16, where they will face Frankfurt in December, which is a tough draw but we still regard them as favourites to advance further.
On international level we see a similar picture, as BVB won 3 out of 4 matches in this years UCL league phase, which hands them a chance to secure a top-8 finish to avoid the play-off round. Despite the away game at Arsenal, the remaining fixtures look manageable. Even with 2 wins and a draw, which would equal 16 points total, BVB would land a top-8 spot in 98% of cases according to Opta. Mind you, our base assumption is a round of 16 exit, while any progress beyond would represent upside to our estimates.
Valuation cross-read. In October, Viessmann Generations Group reportedly paid c. € 250m for a 6.7% stake in FC Bayern München AG, implying c. € 3.75bn post-money, or c. 3.8x FY24/25 sales. While a certain discount is clearly warranted given Bayern's superior track record, the 65% our € 5.00 PT grants should be more than sufficient. BUY.
ISIN: DE0005493092
