Yesterday, bet-at-home.com reported Q3 figures: Online Gaming and the bottom line beat expectations, while Online Betting has yet to return to volume growth, leaving the top line slightly short. Management is seen to address this with additional digital marketing and customer management efforts highlighted in Tuesday's guidance adjustment. In detail:
Moderate GGR growth in seasonally weak quarter. GGR grew by 5.6% yoy to € 10.8m (eNuW: € 11.2m). Key growth driver was a strong Online Gaming performance, partially compensating for the shortfall in Online Betting. Net revenue increased by 7% yoy to € 8.1m (eNuW: € 8.5m), mainly driven by growth in GGR and a slight positive tax effect resulting from a lower tax burden on betting revenue.
Online Gaming GGR accelerated by 33.3% yoy to € 2.3m (eNuW: € 2.1m). Volumes rose 32% yoy to 18.5m (eNuW: 17.4m), positively impacted by a strong customer response to the regulatory change in maximum stake per virtual slot in Germany. The gaming margin improved by 0.2pp to 12.3% (eNuW: 12.1%), benefitting from the company's efforts to maintain its margin gains (Q2'26:12.3%).
Online Sports Betting GGR remained flat yoy at € 8.6m (eNuW: € 9.1m). While volumes continued on their trajectory towards stabilization, they still fell by 1.6% (eNuW: +2.5%) to 64.7m (eNuW: 67.4m). Despite increased Q2 marketing, an improved betting offering and better usability, customer response remained slower than anticipated during the seasonally weaker quarter. The betting margin rose 0.2pp yoy to 13.3%, slightly below our expectations (eNuW: 13.5%) due to unfavorable match outcomes.
Bottom-line ahead of expectations. EBITDA before special items improved to € -0.1m (eNuW: € -0.5m; Q3'25: € -0.9m), helped by more effective marketing, with the margin up 7.5pp to -1.3% (eNuW: -4.7%). Reported EBITDA stood at € -0.5m (eNuW: € -0.7m).
FY26 guidance adjusted. The company narrowed and lowered its FY26 GGR guidance from € 46-54m to € 46-49m (c. € 47m expected by management) and cut its EBITDA before special items guidance from € 0-4m to € -1.6-0m, to reflect the top-line adjustment and the € 0.8m in additional expenses related to optimizing digital marketing and existing customer management. While this weighs on near-term profitability, we view the initiatives as the foundation for a recovery from FY27e, when we expect GGR growth of 7.8%. Further upside stems from the launch of Casinoro and a potentially positive ECJ ruling on legacy legal proceedings.
Adjusting our estimates to reflect the new pace. We lower our FY26 GGR estimate to € 47.4m (previously € 49m) and EBITDA before special items to € -0.3m (previously € 0.5m). For FY27e, we reduce GGR to € 51.1m (previously € 53.9m) and EBITDA before special items to € 3.9m (previously € 5.3m). As FY26 FCF is burdened by the combination of the softer top line and additional investments, it is no longer a meaningful valuation basis. Hence, we roll forward to FCFY'27e. Maintaining BUY at a PT of € 4.7 (previously € 5.0).
ISIN: DE000A0DNAY5
