Following a solid H1 25, the company should have been able to build on that success. In detail, we expect MWB's FY25e sales to come in at some € 12.9m (+31% yoy) thanks to a revival of the secondary luxury watch market. In fact, since mid H1 of last year price indices of the company's most sold brands (Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet) have been on the rise following roughly 2.5-3 years of a gradual decline, weighing on customers willingness to purchase those watches. With this, MWB would outperform its FY25 sales guidance of € 12m.
FY25e EBITDA should have notably improved to € 210k following a € 430k loss in FY24, which was burdened by several IPO related one-off expenses. Following insignificant D&A, financial result and taxes, net income should have turned positive at € 174k (eNuW), showing that MWB now shows profitable operations, following previous loss-making years.
Beyond 2025, profitable growth is set to continue. For 2026 and beyond, we expect MWB to stay on a profitable growth track with sales to rise by 12% p.a. (€ 16m by FY27e). This is seen to be carried by the grown customer base (incl. return customers), a further improving average selling price as well as planned cooperations.
More importantly, the bottom line is seen to improve disproportionately due to the absence of one-off expenses, internal process optimization (incl. automation), a continuously lean operational set up and a favourable commission development. By 2027e, EBITDA looks set to reach € 600k (eNuW).
In sum, MWB should have well passed the operational trough of FY24, reflected by the strong recovery in FY25, laying the foundation for continued profitable growth during the next few years.
We reflect our updated estimates in our DCF valuation, leading to a slightly higher PT of € 65 (old: € 63) with an unchanged HOLD recommendation. -change of analyst-
ISIN: DE000A4032H1