Novo Nordisk's c.17% share price drop underscores how quickly sentiment can turn in single product healthcare stories, especially when patent cycle concerns resurface. In contrast, EUZ is "picks and shovels" by design, supplying regulated radioisotopes and services across a broad set of nuclear medicine applications. The moat is built on execution and regulatory qualification, not a single patent protected product, implying limited binary risks.
FY25 prelims underline this quality profile. In Q4 25, sales came in at € 87.9m (+9% yoy, eNuW: € 91.3m), with reported growth held back by c. 3-4pp fx-headwinds (eNuW). Adj. EBIT rose 41% yoy to € 27.2m (eNuW: € 23.2m), taking the adj. EBIT margin to 31% (+7pp yoy), likely reflecting a better mix (e.g. c.€ 10m license sales, vs. € 5m last year, eNuW). With this, Q4 confirms the strengthening earnings momentum, supporting confidence into 2026e, where we expect 7% yoy sales growth (adj. for license sales: 11% yoy), driven by a 12% yoy improvement in radiopharma (eNuW, adj. for license sales: 20% yoy).
Additional supportive newsflow from China: Telix has filed its PSMA PET prostate cancer imaging product Illuccix, utilising Ga-68, and the dossier has been accepted for review. While this is not an approval yet, it is a tangible step toward opening up a large new market. This is supportive for EUZ's Ga-68 growth leg (eNuW: c.21% of group sales). It also fits a broader pattern of Ga-68 utilising players progressing in China, including Novartis, where an approval decision is pending for their product, to our knowledge. More broadly, driven by international expansion and earlier use in the patient pathway, we expect the Ga-68 market to roughly double by 2030e (eNuW), and see scope for EUZ's related revenues to scale accordingly.
Separately, EUZ quantified the growth runway in therapeutic isotopes for prostate cancer and neuroendocrine tumours at recent conferences:
Lu-177: EUZ sees treated patients rising to c.75k by 2030e (from c.20k in 2025e), with the Lu-177 market potential scaling to € >600m (from € >158m in 2025) over the same period.
Ac-225: By 2034e, EUZ sees treated patients reaching c.13k, with the implied Ac-225 market potential of € >205m.
These market potential figures reinforce the therapeutic isotope upside embedded in EUZ. From a low base (eNuW: low single digit €m in 2025e for Lu-177 plus Ac-225 combined, excl. license fees), EUZ should participate as volumes industrialise, given its proven supplier positioning. We model € 25m sales each for Lu-177 and Ac-225 by 2030e, supporting the long term growth angle.
BUY, unchanged PT of € 23, based on DCF.
ISIN: DE0005659700
