tonies held its first-ever Capital Markets Day, announcing an upbeat mid-term margin and growth guidance, an exclusive content deal as well as a new Toniebox. Here are the key takeaways:
Sales to double by FY30e. Management guided for group sales of more than € 1.4bn by FY30e (vs FY25 sales of € 630m), largely in line with our estimates. Growth is to be driven by new market entries, new product launches and a rising household penetration in the US. Worth highlighting, the current installed base of Tonieboxes already provides visibility into € 1-1.5bn content-driven sales during the next few years. One Toniebox sale yields c. 20 figurine sales over 4.5 years in a subscription-like manner.
US still early despite near-complete distribution. US household penetration stands at just 12%, against 58% in DACH, even though tonies already sits across all relevant retail partners such Amazon, Walmart and Target, which represent ~85% of the US pre-school market. Mind you, within five years, tonies become #2 pre-school toy in the US.
Additional market launches pending. At least two new market launches are targeted by year-end FY27, with coverage of all major global regions by FY30. With a toolkit of successful blueprints (e.g. Australia) as well an already large global installed base (activated boxes in 100+ countries), we regard the chances of success as high.
New Toniebox. tonies announced to be launching a "Toniebox lite" in the second half of the year. With additional details expected in August, the smaller and lighter alternative to TB2 is aimed at expanding the TAM via a lower entry point, secondary-location/travel use cases, and multi-device ownership within existing households.
Margin to exceed expectations. By FY30e, tonies guides for 16-18% adj. EBITDA margin vs 8.6% in FY25 (eNuW old: ~13%). This reflects the natural evolution toward higher-margin attach revenue as the installed base increases alongside improved operating leverage stemming from structural improvements across cost of goods, fulfillment, and the broader cost base incl. SG&A.
Content moat widens further. Tonies announced a collaboration with BBC, bringing Bluey to the Toniebox. For the past two consecutive years, Bluey has been the most streamed show in the US (not just within the pre-school category). Alongside the already-secured Pokémon exclusive and the in-house Tonies Studio content engine (e.g. the new "Sleepy Friends" partnership with Carlsen), the group is expanding its content, now covering nearly all relevant IPs.
Our take: The CMD confirms our tonies thesis. A category-defining ecosystem with subscription-like repurchase behaviour, still-low US penetration despite near-complete distribution, and a content engine licensors now chase. By FY30e, the company will have transformed into a global icon with particularly strong cash generation thanks to its capex-light set-up.
BUY with an increased € 18.5 PT (old: € 14.5) based on DCF as we raise our mid- to long-term margin estimates by an average of 4pp. Terminal EBIT margin is raised from 11% to 15%.
ISIN: LU2333563281
