Yesterday, INDUS significantly hiked its guidance in expectation of an exceptional Q2 result, given strong momentum in Material Solutions related to the tungsten special situation. In detail:
Prel. Q2 revenue rose by 20.6% yoy to € 523.7m, notably beating our expectation of € 486m. The key contributor was Material Solutions, with portfolio company BETEK performing exceptionally strongly amidst the current supply shortage in tungsten products. It benefitted from pricing, additional high-margin orders across all application areas, and gained market share. We attribute € 50-60m (eNuW) of revenue to this special situation as a positive one-off effect. At the same time, the other two segments were indicated to have performed in line with expectations.
Prel. Q2 adj. EBITA skyrocketed by 160.5% yoy to € 81m (eNuW: € 37.6m) as the adj. EBITA margin expanded by 8.2pp yoy to 15.3%, mainly benefitting from the substantially higher margins on current orders in Material Solutions. In our view, this reflects a positive one-off of € 40-45m (eNuW).
FY26 guidance significantly raised. INDUS now expects to reach € 1.9-2.1bn in revenue, € 220-260m in adj. EBITA and an 11-13% adj. EBITA margin, instead of € 1.85-2.05bn in sales and € 160-190m in adj. EBITA at an adj. EBITA margin of 8-10%. In our view, the increase (especially on the margin side) should mainly result from the positive one-off effect related to tungsten and hence does not reflect a sustainable margin level going forward.
Special situation to boost FY26 EPS. We project EPS to double compared to FY25 to € 5.5/share, as Chinese export restrictions and high tungsten demand, partially driven by global defense, seem unlikely to normalize in the short term (at least in H2) at this point. We hence assume that BETEK's current commercial momentum will largely persist in FY26. In our opinion, this windfall potentially provides room for accelerated inorganic growth or additional shareholder returns.
Confirming BUY at a raised PT of € 41 (previously € 37), as we move from FCFY26 to FCFY27 to better reflect a more normalized operational picture of the group.
ISIN: DE0006200108
