WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - El Niño is set to become very strong in the coming months, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization.
Forecasts from WMO's Global Producing Centers indicate an 'exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%' that El Niño will persist through to February 2027.
Fueled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of this year, with climate impacts continuing well into 2027.
'El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race,' said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
'El Niño in Spanish means boy child - but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies,' said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
WMO El Niño/La Niña Updates are the world's most authoritative source of information for governments and decision-makers. These seasonal forecasts are based on a consensus of models from WMO Global Producing Centres, experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and climate prediction centres around the world.
Sea surface temperatures across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, the region at the heart of El Niño, are already well above average, according to WMO
El Niño and La Niña are among the most powerful naturally occurring influences on the global climate system. A very strong event increases the likelihood of major changes in rainfall, temperatures and atmospheric circulation across many regions of the world.
However, the strength of an El Niño event alone does not determine how severe its impacts will be in any individual country or region.
Its effects vary according to location and season and can be modified by other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
For September-November 2026, WMO multi-model forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas, alongside rainfall patterns showing a pronounced and classic atmospheric response to the strong Pacific El Niño.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); one of the most powerful naturally occurring climate patterns on Earth.
El Niño is characterized by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months.
El Niño generally begins developing between March and June and reaches its peak intensity between November and February.
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