WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - A new study suggests that it may be possible to predict suicide attempts and other suicide-related emergencies just days before they happen.
The research, led by psychologist Matthew Nock, found that his team was able to predict 75% of suicide attempts and 87% of suicide-related events during the week before they occurred.
The study, expected to be published in the October issue of the Journal of Psychopathology and Clinical Science, followed more than 600 adults and teenagers who were considered at high risk. The participants came from two groups: adults who had received psychiatric treatment in an emergency room and young people aged 12 to 19 who had been treated at an inpatient clinic for suicidal thoughts or behavior.
After leaving the hospital or clinic, participants began completing surveys through an app. During the first three months, they could complete up to six optional surveys each day. They then completed one survey a day for another three months.
Each survey included 20 questions. Three questions focused on suicidal thoughts, including how strong the urge was, how much intent the person had and how difficult it was to resist the urge. The other 17 questions asked about emotions and moods, including hopelessness, feeling trapped, isolation, anger, agitation, worry, tiredness, energy and positive feelings.
Nearly 500 participants completed at least one full survey that included the questions about emotions. Overall, participants completed more than 77,000 surveys.
Researchers also looked at how participants used the app. For example, they examined how long people took to start a survey after receiving a notification and how long they took to complete it.
The study also included a real-time alert system. If a participant reported a high level of suicidal intent, the system could alert researchers so that steps could be taken to help keep the person safe.
One of the most important findings involved agitation. Researchers found that agitation was a stronger warning sign for suicide attempts than depression. For every one-point increase in reported agitation on the 0-to-10 scale, the likelihood of a suicide attempt increased by 11%.
Nock's team is also working on other ways to monitor suicide risk in real time. These include wearable devices that can track sleep, changes in heart rate, skin responses and even voice patterns.
Researchers are also exploring 'just-in-time' support systems, which could remind people to use coping strategies learned in therapy, contact a loved one or reach out to their healthcare team when their risk appears to be increasing.
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