WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - Scientists project that global land temperatures will be 1.2°C/2.1° F above normal in the coming months due to the current 'Super El Niño' that began in June and is expected to last through Northern Hemisphere spring.
An estimated 451,000 lives will be lost across the world due to El Niño-driven extreme heat, a new report warned.
'These anomalously warm conditions will resemble the higher temperatures that climate change is projected to deliver 20 years in the future and will lead to 44 percent more extremely hot days than we would expect in a normal year. El Niño is effectively pushing us into the future - exposing us to temperatures that won't be the norm for another two decades - before we have time to adapt and protect ourselves,' says the analysis from the Climate Impact Lab, published on Wednesday.
With current forecasts suggesting El Niño will remain in place through spring 2027, we expect all of these numbers to grow even higher, particularly as impacts such as higher-than-average temperatures and heat-related deaths will linger into June-July, 2027, says a team of scientists, economists and data engineers headquartered at the University of Chicago.
The report identifies the regions where the greatest number of people are projected to die from extreme heat.
Regions that are projected to see the largest increase in heat-related deaths over the next six months are spread across the Global South. The most impacted countries across the Sahel will see an additional 66,800 heat deaths from September to February compared to a normal year, with nearly half of those lives being lost in Nigeria (31,400). Elsewhere in the region, Sudan will face 17,500 additional heat deaths, Niger will face 10,000, and Chad 8,000. In South East Asia, the extra heat is projected to cause an additional 19,400 deaths in the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia, and 19,300 deaths in Indonesia. Other highly impacted regions over the next six months include India (15,800) and Brazil (13,300).
Looking beyond the current 6-month forecast window - which runs through February 2027 - the study anticipates that key areas in the northern hemisphere, such as India and Pakistan, will see heat-related deaths continue to rise into their summer.
The unprecedented warm temperatures that most of the globe will see during this Super El Niño event are a 'postcard from the future', the report says. 'While they feel anomalous now, they will become normal just a few decades into the future.'
It suggests a number of actions for preventing these future heat deaths such as anticipatory financing; heat early warning systems and heat action plans that let health officials target vulnerable populations with home visits, expand water availability, and monitor heat-related symptoms; more accurate temperature forecasting; and wider access to cooling technologies.
Copyright(c) 2026 RTTNews.com. All Rights Reserved
Copyright RTT News/dpa-AFX
© 2026 AFX News
