We hosted Nabaltec at our conference in Paris. Management confirmed that the return to growth continues and that FY26 guidance (sales +4-6%, EBIT margin 5-7%) is still in reach. In detail:
Growth to continue. Management expects the growth to continue in H2, following 6.9% sales growth in the second quarter. Mind you, the company ended Q2 with an order backlog of € 52.2m (+36.3% yoy) providing decent visibility into H2. Drivers:
Aluminium hydroxides (ATH). The environmentally friendly flame retardant used in cables is increasingly being used in data-centre build-outs. While the exact revenue contribution is difficult to quantify, rising demand is likely notable. Key cable manufacturers have highlighted data centres as one of the most important demand drivers for high-end cables.
Viscosity optimized hydrates (VH). VH sales rose 36% yoy in H1, driven by rising adoption rates. As a reminder, VH is mixed into adhesives used in lithium-ion batteries to improve their thermal management, which lowers the risk of overheating, improves fast charging and extends battery life. In our view, growth should carry through the remainder of the year (FY26e sales of € 15.8m) and the mid-term, with the drivers unchanged and the market expected to grow by 18.5% p.a. until 2031.
Boehmites have likely passed the trough. The coating material for separators in EV batteries contributed sales of some € 24m in FY21, but only € 8.5m (eNuW) in FY25. Since the beginning of the year, sales have been slowly picking up again as several battery plants ramp up production across Europe. In our view, boehmite sales should grow by roughly 10% in FY26 to almost € 10m.
Energy remains a headwind. Electricity and natural gas costs are still weighing on earnings, as average prices have increased. Countering this are raw material costs and fewer than initially expected interruptions from the waste incineration plant. Importantly, natural gas prices were fixed until the end of the year, allowing for additional visibility on the margin. Mind you, FY26e will be impacted by some € 2m one-off expenses from maintenance work at the waste incineration
Conclusion: Little downside risk, valuation remains attractive. The conference feedback confirms our view that the investment case is intact. Data centres and VH remain the key growth drivers, and the FY26 guidance remains in reach despite higher energy costs. Nabaltec holds a globally leading position in environmentally friendly flame retardants, a market underpinned by tightening regulation and structural demand growth. Even against a difficult backdrop for specialty chemicals, the company stands out for its solid balance sheet, resilient margins and sizeable untapped capacity (€ 300m revenue potential, eNuW) to be filled over the mid- to long-term.
The valuation continues to appear cheap, with the shares trading clearly below book value and an adj. FCFY of 13% for FY26e. We confirm our BUY rating with an unchanged € 16 PT, based on FCFY26e.
ISIN: DE000A0KPPR7
