Original-Research: OHB SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to OHB SE
Stars align for a stronger order outlook We view OHB's share price weakness as unjustified given the further strengthening we expect in its order outlook. The company has secured a nearly € 1bn order for IRIS², Sentinel is moving towards a final contract and we now see greater order potential from SATCOMBw 4. Q3 should show continued growth, with the main programme-driven earnings uplift still ahead. Upcoming contract awards should act as key share price catalysts. IRIS²: key award secured, with further upside. OHB secured a nearly € 1bn order in Q3. The contract covers the development and production of 18 medium Earth orbit (MEO) satellite platforms for IRIS², the EU's secure, sovereign communications network for government and commercial users. The award reinforces OHB's position as one of Europe's leading MEO satellite manufacturers, extending its Galileo track record into secure communications. We expect first revenues in Q4, with annual sales peaking around 2028-29 as the programme moves from development into production (eNuW). Poland's plan to fund six additional MEO satellites offers scope for an OHB follow-on order worth c. € 200m (eNuW). Sentinel: next major ESA award moves closer. OHB and ESA have signed a letter of intent for Sentinel-3 Next Generation Topography, marking progress towards a final contract in Q4. The Copernicus mission will improve sea-level and ice monitoring, reinforcing OHB's position in European Earth observation. We estimate a potential order intake of c. € 650m (eNuW). SATCOMBw 4: € 5-7bn order potential. The planned low Earth orbit constellation will provide the Bundeswehr with secure, sovereign connectivity. The € 10bn investment figure cited during the Bundestag's September defence budget debate is incrementally positive, supporting our assumption at the upper end of the previously discussed € 8-10bn range. Industry discussions have led us to assign a larger proportion of the programme value to OHB's anticipated satellite and associated ground-infrastructure work. We therefore raise our estimate of OHB's share to 50-70% (previously: 30-50%), implying potential order intake of € 5-7bn in H1 2027 (eNuW). Confirmation of the contract value and OHB's allocation should act as a share price catalyst and be accompanied by a first earnings contribution in 2027e (eNuW). RFA: new CEO ahead of maiden flight. Former HENSOLDT Sensors COO Alexander Dahm joined as CEO, bringing industrialisation expertise. ESA's 23 September update still listed launch-pad hot-fire testing as outstanding. Winter weather at SaxaVord increases the risk of a launch slipping into 2027 (eNuW). A delay would defer a potential catalyst, but should leave our estimates and investment case unchanged given the well-known uncertainty around launch timing and success. Q3 preview: continued growth ahead of the larger ramp-up. Total output is expected to rise 16% yoy to € 347m, driven by continued conversion of the existing backlog, which stood at c. € 3.3bn at end-H1 and is seen to climb to c. € 4.2bn after 9M (eNuW). We forecast EBITDA to increase by 16% yoy to € 39m (eCons: € 37m), implying an 11.2% margin (+0.1pp yoy). Reiterate BUY, PT € 340, based on DCF. You can download the research here: ohb-se-2026-10-16-previewreview-en-89dd8 For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||
2416972 16.10.2026 CET/CEST
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