Original-Research: GFT Technologies SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to GFT Technologies SE
Q3 preview: code for a comeback, chg. GFT's Q3 should put earnings upside back in focus. Faster growth and improving UK profitability suggest that the 2026 guidance is too conservative. Our forecast still allows for a slowdown in Q4 earnings growth, leaving room for outperformance. Peer results highlight continued IT spending by financial institutions. Accenture's Financial Services revenue grew 6% yoy in local currency in fiscal Q4. Cognizant's corresponding segment grew c. 8% yoy in constant currencies in Q3, excluding the contribution from third-party product sales. On 30 October, Capgemini raised its FY26 revenue outlook, implying 4-4.5% organic growth, and highlighted Financial Services as a growth driver. While Accenture's group FY27 guidance remains measured, implying 0.5-4% organic growth (+2-2.5pp from acquisitions), the company highlights ongoing investment in core systems and data infrastructure needed for AI adoption. These spending priorities should support demand for GFT's banking, cloud and data expertise (eNuW). GFT's Q3 sales growth should accelerate. Revenues look set to grow 7.6% yoy to € 230m, following 6.1% yoy growth in Q2. Latin America should remain the main growth driver and we expect the UK to grow both yoy and qoq against a weak comp following its restructuring. Q3 adj. EBIT should grow faster than sales. Adj. EBIT is expected to grow 16.9% yoy to € 18m, implying a margin improvement of 0.6pp yoy to 7.8%. Improving UK profitability, greater personnel efficiency and lower office lease depreciation should drive the increase (eNuW). FY26 guidance looks too conservative. Based on our Q3 estimates, the € 71m adj. EBIT target implies a c. 7% yoy decline in Q4, compared with c. 17% growth expected for Q3. Continued improvements in UK profitability and personnel efficiency underpin our higher FY26 forecast of € 73m (eNuW). Sustained delivery would mark a change in the earnings-revision trend. Following repeated guidance cuts in 2023-25, an outlook with room for outperformance represents a meaningful improvement. While our forecast still assumes only c. 3% yoy adj. EBIT growth in Q4, ongoing momentum into year-end could help GFT exceed both guidance and our estimates. Sustained delivery would also help rebuild confidence in the earnings trajectory beyond FY26 (eNuW). The investment case extends beyond the UK recovery. GFT's banking expertise and deep knowledge of clients' complex IT systems create switching costs and support follow-on business as banks modernise their core platforms to enable AI. Expanding smartshore delivery and shifting towards higher-value services offer structural margin upside. Its capital-light business model also supports cash generation. Action: adj. EBIT increased by c. 3% for 2026e, supported by FX and positive peer cross reads. BUY, with a PT of € 32, based on DCF. You can download the research here: gft-technologies-se-2026-11-04-previewreview-en-868f0 For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. | ||||||||||||||||||
2427946 04.11.2026 CET/CEST
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