MLP's Q3 results confirm the earnings uplift behind October's guidance increase. EBIT reached € 26.7m (Q3 25: € 18.3m), driven by higher FERI performance fees, growth in underlying wealth management and higher net interest income. The confirmed € 110-120m FY26 guidance still looks conservative, with our EBIT forecast unchanged at € 123m. In detail:
Q3 group sales increased 15% yoy to € 271.9m, sustaining Q2's growth pace (+15% yoy). The EBIT margin on total revenue widened by 2pp to 9.5%, mainly reflecting the higher contribution from FERI's performance fees. Higher variable compensation at FERI and IT expenses contributed to a 15% increase in administration costs to € 121.4m.
Higher client assets and interest income support the Wealth business area. Revenue rose 26% yoy to € 161.2m. Of this, wealth management contributed € 127.9m (+34% yoy), including c. € 21m of performance fees (Q3 25: € 2.8m). Excluding performance fees, wealth management revenue still grew c. 15% (eNuW), supported by a 9% higher AuM base of € 70.1bn. This larger asset base should also support recurring management fees into FY27. Higher interest rates are also lifting returns on banking assets, with net interest income up c. 12% to € 16m. With September's ECB rate increase to 2.5% only partly reflected in Q3, the full-quarter effect should provide an additional boost to net interest income in Q4.
Life & Health's recovery remains uneven. Revenues declined 4% yoy to € 66.1m in a seasonally less relevant quarter, following 6% growth in Q2, as old-age provision revenue fell 7% to € 48.6m. At the same time, health insurance grew 5% to € 17.5m, supported by demand for higher standards of healthcare. On the back of a mixed Q3, MLP now expects flat FY26 revenue in Life & Health, versus slight growth previously, in line with eNuW (-0.7% yoy).
Property & Casualty's premium book supports continued growth. Revenue grew 9% yoy to € 42.1m. Managed non-life premiums increased c. 10% yoy to € 870m, broadly maintaining the growth rate seen at June.
The upper end of guidance still leaves room for outperformance. The € 120m upper end of MLP's FY26 EBIT guidance implies Q4 EBIT of c. € 33m, down c. 9% yoy versus last year's € 36m adjusted for the goodwill impairment in Deutschland.Immobilien. The implied decline looks cautious given the larger recurring fee base and higher interest income. Our unchanged € 123m FY26 EBIT forecast implies c. € 36m in Q4, broadly matching last year's adjusted level. Additional FERI performance fees remain a potential source of upside.
Pension reform provides an additional growth opportunity from 2027. Voluntary transfers of existing Riester savings into the Altersvorsorgedepot should broaden MLP's recurring fee base. Our estimate of c. € 6-7m incremental annual EBIT by 2028 remains unchanged.
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged € 14 PT, based on Residual Income.
ISIN: DE0006569908