On Thursday evening, Aiforia announced having completed a directed share issue of 3.6m shares at € 1.772 per share, raising gross proceeds of some € 6.4m. The subscription price corresponds to the closing price of June 25th, representing no discount to market. The placement increases the total share count to 37.39m implying post-money dilution of ~9.6%.
According to a previous press release, roughly € 4.8m was committed by TJT Technologies Oy, controlled by board chairman Tuomas Tenkanen, and Mikko Laakkonen, both existing shareholders at 4.65% and 5.33% of capital respectively (ex-raise) and alongside TAJLIP, Société Civile, a Luxembourg-based entity controlled by Jean de Gunzburg and Terry de Gunzburg.
We now see Aiforia as having sufficient liquidity through end of Q3 2027 (eNuW). Should the term sheet with the European Investment Bank (EIB) become binding, Aiforia would also have the possibility to draw a maximum of € 20m in venture debt. Following a binding agreement with the EIB, Aiforia would have six months to draw the first € 5m tranche, providing additional capital buffer. Following last week's capital raise of € 6.4m, we estimate Aiforia needing less than € 15m in total to reach FCF breakeven, a figure that looks increasingly manageable given the present funding tools at Aiforia's disposal (eNuW). As highlighted in our previous note, the non-binding EIB term sheet is itself a meaningful quality signal, as the EIB is known for conducting extensive due diligence before extending support to a potential borrower.
The placement materially de-risks the investment case. Prior to the EIB term-sheet and the € 6.4m placement, investors had likely priced in execution risk around the next financing round. With liquidity now extended through Q3 2027 and the EIB facility available as an additional backstop, that concern is effectively off the table. Investors can refocus on what drives the fundamental value of the business: the revenue ramp-up and the acceleration of the clinical business, supporting management's target of financial independence by end-2027. The removal of the financing overhang, combined with accelerating clinical momentum, sets the stage for a meaningful re-rating as the commercial model scales and the strategic value of AI-powered pathology continues to gain recognition. As flagged in a previous note, the hefty premium paid by Roche for PathAI (eNuW: 25-35x sales), suggests that current revenue levels do not reflect the long-term potential of AI in oncology diagnostics. For reference, Aiforia trades at EV/Sales 12.4x for 2026e.
The next concrete datapoint will be the H1 figures, due August 28th. We expect very strong growth, with clinical segment doubling revenues yoy (eNuW). Revenue ramp-up remains the central share price catalyst.
We adjust our DCF model to account for the capital raise, which decreases our PT from € 3.8 to € 3.6 on dilution. We make no other changes and reiterate our BUY rating.
ISIN: FI4000507934
