LAIQON turned EBITDA positive in Q2 for the first time in years and Digital Wealth is scaling fast enough to significantly move group AUMs. Both AuM and sales grew sequentially without acquisition support, highlighting an increasing growth pace. In detail:
AuM increased 13% qoq to € 11bn. While Digital Wealth is only c. 12% of group AuM, it contributed c. 45% of H1 net AUM growth. In fact, LAIC's white label funds more than doubled vs. beginning of the year and July gross inflows stood at € 106m, which should be seen as a monthly inflow run-rate going forward. The € 12bn year-end target needs another € 0.7bn in five months (August 7: AUMs at € 11.3bn), which appears to be broadly achievable with Digital Wealth contributions alone.
Q2 sales rose 23% qoq to € 12.8m. Digital Wealth had the highest growth rate at +114% qoq to € 1.4m thanks to ongoing net inflows. At the same time, Asset Management added € 1.3m qoq to € 8.57m, while Wealth Management declined € 0.2m qoq to € 1.8m. Alongside cash inflows, the strong equity market developments should have helped as well.
Q2 EBITDA arrived at € 1.1m, implying a € 2.4m qoq improvement, with higher one-off items (€ 1m higher qoq restructuring expenses; € 0.7m qoq M&A gains). The Q2 EBITDA margin stood at 8.4%, up c. 22pp qoq, partially driven by a lower personnel cost base.
FY guidance confirmed. Reaching the lower end requires € 29.8m of H2 sales after € 23.2m in H1, which appears to be no walk in the park albeit doable (eNuW). Similarly, the Q2 EBITDA step-up suggests the operating leverage and cost control are in place to reach the lower-end of the EBITDA guidance as well (€ 4.5m). The AI ETF with Amundi is scheduled to launch on August 18 and should add to Digital Wealth inflows, while WertAnlage now covers over 100 co-operative banks, c. 25% of the target universe.
On financing, a € 10.7m debt-to-equity swap at € 6.25 per share is reflected in c. 7% more shares outstanding, explaining our EPS estimate adjustment and the new PT. Still, as part of a larger financing overhaul, total debt unlikely to decline this year. Net debt is to be reported with the detailed H1 report on August 28, which is said to also cover a strategy update on the mid-term growth ambition.
In sum, Q2 shows LAIQON more than covering its operating cost base for the first time in a while. Digital Wealth is developing into a meaningful group growth engine, with strong organic inflows increasingly driving AuM and recurring sales across a scalable platform. Combined with the leaner personnel cost base, further distribution via Amundi and the expanding WertAnlage network should translate continued AuM growth into rising profitability.
BUY, PT € 8.50 (old: 8.80), based on DCF.
ISIN: DE000A12UP29
