Yesterday, LION released its Q2 results. Despite a weak quarter performance linked to the preparations for the new NMC+ battery packs, LION beat expectations. In detail:
Sales weaker, but ahead of expectations. As plant adjustments were carried out in the quarter, the top line largely reflected the sale of inventory (now sold out except for spare part requirements) in Mobility. Total revenue fell by only 7.7% to € 3.6m (eNuW: € 3.2m).
EBITDA largely flat yoy. Other own work capitalized and other operating income strengthened. Personnel costs were further reduced (project management and accounting). This compensated for increased procurement costs, a reduced contribution from high-margin services and higher development expenses. EBITDA hence came in at € -0.1m (Q2'25: € -0.2m). The net loss of € -0.8m beat expectations (eNuW: € -0.9m) due to a slightly higher-than-anticipated tax loss carry forward but came in below Q2 2025 (€ -0.4m).
Higher working capital required for production ramp-up. Operating CF fell to € -1.7m compared to € 2.3m in Q2 2025, driven by increased upfront supplier payments (related to the NMC+ ramp up) and stretched customer payments.
Plant adjustment complete, ramp-up ahead in Mobility. To recap, the restart of production was announced in early July 26. Despite the fact that lead times for battery cells have increased from six to twelve weeks (limited availability of cargo slots related to the Iran war), Mobility already recorded significant orders for FY26e.
The two-stage production ramp-up is to progress with a semi-automated line in Q3 and a fully automated line in Q4 26. According to management, this should lead to a production capacity of ~ 2'000 packs until end of FY26. In FY27, the capacity is to rise to ~ 10'000-11'000 packs. A further expansion to the full capacity of the previous battery pack series is feasible but would require additional line adjustments/investments. Importantly, first shipments to bus customers started in July 26. Also, integration solutions for a retrofit into BMWi3 (increasing the car range to 400 km) are currently being finalized, with several hundred inquiries placed so far.
Storage is to accelerate as BESS is to gain traction in the coming months. Following a first project in Finsterwalde, a second project was won in Northern Bavaria (5 MW / 10 MWh) worth € 600k (eNuW) in revenue with a prepayment expected for Q3 (eNuW). Grid approval is planned by end of 2026. Management highlighted another three projects not yet signed in the near-term pipeline.
Transition complete, growth ahead. We expect LION to exit Q2 operationally strengthened. We view LION to be ideally positioned to deliver on its FY26 guidance of > € 35m (eNuW: € 36.4m) in sales and a strongly positive EBITDA (eNuW: € 5.7m). We maintain BUY but reduce our PT to € 2.8 (previously € 3.2) on the expectation of elevated working capital requirements to facilitate the NMC+ ramp up.
ISIN: CH0560888270
