2026 should mark LAIQON's transition from build-up to growth and profitability. After several years of platform build-out and product development, the operational base appears largely established. The focus is now on monetising existing capabilities and translating this growth into sustainable profitability thanks to operating leverage.
The caveat upfront: 2025 looks set to have ended below our prior expectations, as most recent AUM information suggests that the digital wealth segment did not ramp up as expected. Moreover, while financial leverage increases equity sensitivity to growth, it also limits financial flexibility and raises execution risk.
Importantly, the upswing now seems to be taking shape: firstly, EBITDA is expected to come in positively in H2 25e at € 1.1m. Secondly, LAIQON's digital wealth segment growth is starting to materialise thanks to WertAnlage. In fact, the sub-segment LAIC is set to be on an annualised € 420m AUM growth run-rate already (as of January). Since starting into the year with only roughly € 388m AUM (eNuW), the momentum is indicative of a potential catch-up effect. The opportunity remains sizeable, as the targeted 600 cooperative banks might eventually all be connected to the product distribution. So far, c. 16% are actively promoting WertAnlage or are in onboarding/contracting. We assume further growth acceleration, rendered into sales at a common fee structure (eNuW: 0.30% fee on AuMs for management of WertAnlage). Total sales growth in 2026e for the segment is expected at 80% yoy to € 6.8m (c. 13% of group total). The digital wealth segment outlook is also supported by the Amundi ETF implementation expected in summer 2026. A total AUM contribution of c. € 150m seems feasible in 2026e, given Amundi's distribution reach and the typically stronger early traction of thematic AI products (eNuW).
Guidance for 2026 implies a clear step-change, with revenues of € 53-58m (eNuW: € 54m) and EBITDA of € 4.5-7.5m (eNuW: € 5.9m). The key driver is operating leverage: incremental AuM should translate disproportionately into earnings as organic fixed costs are largely in place. Moreover, integration of the MainFirst assets continues to support group revenue visibility and margin expansion in the asset management segment. Further, management has highlighted the ambition to pay a first dividend for FY 2026, signalling a transition towards a more stable earnings phase.
Key catalysts include progress on the Amundi ETF, continued scaling of WertAnlage distribution and confirmation of sustainable EBITDA profitability. With the platform built and multiple growth levers active, 2026 is set to be the year in which LAIQON's strategy becomes visible in the financials, supporting a constructive investment case.
BUY, new PT € 9.10 (old: € 11.00), based on DCF. - analyst change -
ISIN: DE000A12UP29
