REYKJAVIK, Iceland, 2014-07-24 21:32 CEST (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --
The Iceland Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) dropped in June for the second
month in row. The indicator published by independent advisory company
Analytica, is designed to anticipate turning-points in economic activity
relative to trend. The dip in the past couple of months is not viewed as a
significant change in growth prospects.
There are various indications of a continued pickup in domestic demand and the number of tourists continues to grow at a fast pace.
Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.
There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For June five of the six underlying components are strengthening year on year. Also, five of the six components rise on the previous month.
Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The value for June falls by 0.2 percent on the month to 101.5. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. December. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend.
Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2013-2014
Change in % Indication ----------------- Index on month YOY for month ----------------------------------- 2013 June 101.3 -0.2% -0.4% Dec. July 101.4 0.1% -0.6% Jan. 2014 August 101.6 0.2% -0.4% Feb. September 101.9 0.3% 0.1% March October 102.1 0.2% 0.5% April November 102.1 0.0% 0.8% May December 102.0 -0.1% 0.9% June 2014 January 101.9 0.0% 0.8% July February 101.9 0.0% 0.6% August March 102.0 0.0% 0.5% Sept. April 101.9 -0.1% 0.4% Oct. May 101.7 -0.2% 0.3% Nov. June 101.5 -0.2% 0.2% Dec.
The July Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on August 20, 2014.
Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is
There are various indications of a continued pickup in domestic demand and the number of tourists continues to grow at a fast pace.
Turning points of the CLI tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by approximately six months. Economic activity is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) published by the Statistical Bureau of Iceland. The calculation of Analytica's CLI is based on methodology adopted by the OECD.
There are six components of Analytica's CLI. These are: Fish catches, inflation adjusted debit card turnover, number of tourists visiting Iceland, the MSCI World equities index, inflation adjusted imports and the Gallup Index of Consumer Confidence. For June five of the six underlying components are strengthening year on year. Also, five of the six components rise on the previous month.
Table 1 shows the development of the CLI during the past twelve months. The value for June falls by 0.2 percent on the month to 101.5. This value serves as an indicator to economic activity six months into the future, i.e. December. A value of 100 indicates GDP in line with its long term trend.
Table 1. Analytica's CLI 2013-2014
Change in % Indication ----------------- Index on month YOY for month ----------------------------------- 2013 June 101.3 -0.2% -0.4% Dec. July 101.4 0.1% -0.6% Jan. 2014 August 101.6 0.2% -0.4% Feb. September 101.9 0.3% 0.1% March October 102.1 0.2% 0.5% April November 102.1 0.0% 0.8% May December 102.0 -0.1% 0.9% June 2014 January 101.9 0.0% 0.8% July February 101.9 0.0% 0.6% August March 102.0 0.0% 0.5% Sept. April 101.9 -0.1% 0.4% Oct. May 101.7 -0.2% 0.3% Nov. June 101.5 -0.2% 0.2% Dec.
The July Composite Leading Indicator is scheduled for release on August 20, 2014.
Further information is provided by Analytica's CEO, Mr. Yngvi Hardarson Tel. +354 5278890 - email: yngvi@analytica.is