LONDON, UK / ACCESSWIRE / November 16, 2017 / Atossa Genetics (NASDAQ: ATOS) reported Phase I data on its topical endoxifen formulation and it is now developing this as a potential treatment for high mammographic breast density (MBD), which is associated with increased breast cancer risk. The firm is also developing oral endoxifen for patients refractory to tamoxifen, and its intraductal microcatheter (IDMC), combined with established cancer drug fulvestrant. After also considering the recent $5.5m equity raise (at $0.44 per share), our rNPV-derived equity valuation is $24.6m (from $9.3m previously), or $0.93 per share.
We expect Atossa will raise $10m in each of 2018 and 2019 to fund its R&D programs for endoxifen and IDMC-fulvestrant. We expect the operating cash burn rate to increase 67% in 2018 to $11.8m, due to increased clinical trial costs. Our risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) valuation of $18.4m is up from $6.3m previously, due to us now including the topical endoxifen program, with a 5% probability of success, in our valuation for the treatment of MBD. Previously, our valuation only included the oral formulation (success probability raised to 20%, from 15% previously, due to Phase I data) and IDMC-fulvestrant (success probability of 10% vs 25% previously due to slow study recruitment). After including Q417 estimated net cash of $6.1m (factoring in the recent $5.5m equity raise), we obtain an equity valuation of $24.6m, or $0.93 per share before potential further dilution from funding requirements.
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