DJ Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc (ATNM-US): Improving access to CAR-T
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goetzpartners securities Limited
Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc (ATNM-US): Improving access to CAR-T
28-Sep-2018 / 07:39 GMT/BST
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*Published to the market and investors on 28th September 2018 @ 7.17am (London
time).*
*Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc (ATNM-US): Improving access to CAR-T*
*Recommendation: OUTPERFORM*
*Target Price: USD$4.00 *
*Current Price: USD$0.76 (COB on 27th September 2018) *
*KEY TAKEAWAY*
With its molecular-targeted radio-therapy Iomab-B showing promise and in a
pivotal Phase III for bone marrow transplant, Actinium has initiated a
programme to use lower dose (Iomab-ACT) to boost safety and efficacy of the
much-vaunted CAR-T therapy in blood cancers. While the tens of billions USD
spent on CAR-T assets highlight the potential, the extreme cost and safety
concerns surrounding CAR-T have so far held back uptake of the two marketed
products Kymriah (Novartis) and Yescarta (Kite Pharma / Gilead). Based on
previous data, Actinium believes that replacing the current toxic pre-CAR-T
conditioning regimen with targeted radiotherapy could improve patient
outcomes, potentially reducing barriers to reimbursement and expanding patient
access. Although the true scale of the CAR-T Iomab-ACT opportunity is unclear
at this early stage, Actinium's new initiative further highlights the
potential of its molecular-targeted radiotherapy in blood and immune diseases.
We maintain and reiterate both our OUTPERFORM recommendation and TP of $4.00 /
share as detailed in our initiation report of April 2018.
Benefits of Iomab-ACT over chemo - Successful CAR-T therapy requires depletion
of patient lymphocytes prior to treatment. Iomab-ACT therapy promises to
provide specific targeting of lymphocytes, including cancer cells, provided by
one dose in an out-patient setting. Current fludaribine / cyclophosphamide
("Flu-Cy") leads to non-specific blood cell depletion as well as other
toxicity and requires multiple infusions over a number of days. Iomab-ACT has
the potential for better efficacy, safety and convenience.
CAR-T benefits come at a cost - The benefits of the already marketed products
Kymriah and Yescarta in helping otherwise hopeless patients beat treatment
refractory blood cancers including acute lymphoblastic leukaemia ("ALL"),
diffuse large cell lymphoma ("DLCL") are well known. However, the enormous
cost of manufacturing and supplying these personalised therapies (treatment
costs approaching $500k) presents a significant barrier to reimbursement.
Improved outcomes could facilitate reimbursement - Given the sky-high cost,
payers increasing looking towards outcome-based reimbursement schemes for
CAR-T based therapies. The improved safety and efficacy promised by Iomab-ACT
compared to existing chemotherapeutic Flu-Cy regimens could facilitate such an
outcome-based approach.
Documented safety and efficacy of Iomab - Low dose Iomab has already been
shown to deplete lymphocytes and is safe at much greater doses as documented
in over 500 patients undergoing pre-bone marrow transplant conditioning. While
Actinium has yet to disclose details, a relatively simple dosing trial of
Iomab-ACT in combination with CAR-T is in planning by its clinical
collaborators.
Providing CAR-T players with freedom to operate - Flu-Cy lymphocyte depletion
regimens for CAR-T is covered by a patent filed by Kite Pharma (owned by
Gilead). An effective alternative conditioning pathway patented by Actinium
could provide other CAR-T players freedom to operate.
Significant upside - The prospect of significant clinical news flow from
Actimab in H2/2018E and pivotal readout on Iomab-B suggests significant upside
from current levels. As detailed in our initiation report of April 2018, our
valuation suggests that Actinium still remains fundamentally undervalued at
current levels. Our analysis indicates a current fair value of $2.60 per share
rising to $5.00 per share on the back of positive phase 2 data in H2/2018E. We
maintain and reiterate both our OUTPERFORM recommendation and target price of
$4.00 per share.
Kind regards,
Chris Redhead | Analyst
goetzpartners Healthcare Research Team | Research Team
goetzpartners securities Limited
The Stanley Building, 7 Pancras Square, London, N1C 4AG, England, UK.
T +44 (0) 203 859 7725 | chris.redhead@goetzpartners.com /
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September 28, 2018 02:39 ET (06:39 GMT)
