DJ Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc (ATNM-US): Hot property mis-priced
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goetzpartners securities Limited
Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc (ATNM-US): Hot property mis-priced
17-Dec-2018 / 13:41 GMT/BST
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*Actinium Pharmaceuticals Inc (ATNM-US): Hot property mis-priced*
*Recommendation: OUTPERFORM*
*Target Price: USD$ 4.00 *
*Current Price: USD$ 0.42 (CoB on 14th December 2018) *
*KEY TAKEAWAY*
With Novartis spending $6bn on AAA and Endocyte, Actinium looks grossly
mis-priced following the management turn-round. Data reported at ASH (American
Society of Haematology) support a positive outlook. These data should
accelerate recruitment for the on-going pivotal Phase 3 for Iomab-B in AML and
support its broader use in HSCT (Human Stem Cell Transplant). Phase 2 data
underpin the new strategy to leverage the Actinium platform in targeted HSCT
conditioning as well as in combination with other cancer therapies. This
should enable Actinium to commercialise conditioning regimens itself in the
transplant market while exploiting the broad range of therapeutic applications
through partners. We see the current volatility as a buying opportunity. We
maintain and reiterate both our OUTPERFORM recommendation and TP of $4.00.
*Compelling data in poorly treated population* - While bone marrow transplant
represents one of the only effective treatments and promotes survival, few
>55yr patients with active R / R AML are eligible; older patients do not
respond well to current conditioning. Effective in 100% of older patients for
HSCT in the on-going pivotal trial, Iomab-B could have a dramatic benefit.
Given the known survival benefits of HSCT and the Iomab-B arm relapse-free
over 100 days, these results bode well for the key Phase III 180-day endpoint
due in 2019E.
*Opportunity in CAR-T therapy* - Although CAR-T therapy has been shown to be
very effective, current conditioning needed to prepare patients may restrict
use in frailer patients and potentially blunt therapeutic response. Efficient
targeted conditioning with the lower dose Iomab-ACT could provide an effective
alternative improving both patient eligibility and efficacy.
*Phase 2 underpins dual strategy* - Actimab-A Phase 2 data support use of
molecular targeted 225-Ac radiation for HSCT conditioning and targeted disease
therapy. Higher dosing eradicates cancer cells and provides pre-transplant
conditioning. Lower doses can leverage the multiple synergistic anti-cancer
effects of radiation, but with the limited toxicity necessary for combination
with other cancer therapies. This underpins a strategy of direct marketing of
conditioning regimens to transplant centres with therapeutic application out
licensed.
*Acceleration into Phase 3 *- An FDA-agreed protocol allows Actimab-MDS to
move into pivotal Phase 3 for pre-HSCT for myelodysplastic syndrome in 2019E.
Lower dose Actimab combination therapies entering early stage trials should
drive partnering.
*Adding to the buzz around radiopharmaceuticals* - Following closely on the
heels of the recent $2.2bn acquisition of Endocyte Inc by Novartis, these data
can only add to the excitement around radiopharmaceuticals. One of a handful
of pure play clinical stage radio pharma companies, Actinium looks an
attractive asset. We maintain and reiterate both our OUTPERFORM recommendation
and $4.00 target price.
Kind regards,
Chris Redhead | Analyst
goetzpartners Healthcare Research Team | Research Team
goetzpartners securities Limited
The Stanley Building, 7 Pancras Square, London, N1C 4AG, England, UK.
T +44 (0) 203 859 7725 | chris.redhead@goetzpartners.com /
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 17, 2018 08:41 ET (13:41 GMT)
