LONDON, Feb. 10, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- CRU Economics ran its fourth annual survey to gauge our clients' expectations of economic conditions for 2020. We elicited responses across CRU's full product portfolio and received information from 182 clients, working in 41 different countries. This feature presents the results of the survey, alongside our own expectations for the economy in 2020.
Policy uncertainty remains a top risk as we enter the 20s
Compared to the survey on 2019 economic conditions, our clients seem to be generally less worried as we enter the new decade.
There was a high level of policy uncertainty during 2019 that spanned the range of fiscal, monetary, trade and other commercial measures. As China's economy began to slow, the rest of the world wondered whether China would raise government spending, as it had done in the past when growth slowed. It seemed that from one day to the next, US President Trump would tweet a new direction for trade policy whilst his conflict with the Democrats in the US House of Representatives thwarted a potential infrastructure bill. The exit of the UK from the EU, the first of its kind, weighed on European growth. Finally, higher emissions standards depressed vehicle demand and production in the US, China and India.
The downside risks to growth for 2020 are not dissimilar to those expressed in 2019: policy uncertainty, trade protectionism and slower growth from the world's major economies.
The upside risks are almost a mirror to these, with a potential fiscal stimulus in Europe, lower tariffs and a stronger US economy countering the downside potential.
The risks not captured in these Top 5 include a potential US recession (21%), the uncertainty related to Brexit (14.3%) and, marginally (<5%), emerging market currency contagion, monetary policy, and higher oil prices. However, in the free text box, several respondents suggested climate change and environmental constraints as possible downside risks to global growth. This last point is a sentiment that is gaining traction, particularly after worldwide automotive production plummeted in 2019, in part due to new emission standards.
Overall, the Top 5 downside and upside risks highlight the weight of US trade policy, Chinese growth and monetary policy in the fortunes of the global economy.
Read the full story:
https://www.crugroup.com/knowledge-and-insights/spotlights/2020/macro-survey-results-not-the-roaring-twenties/
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CRU offers unrivalled business intelligence on the global metals, mining and fertilizer industries through market analysis, price assessments, consultancy and events.
Since our foundation by Robert Perlman in 1969, we have consistently invested in primary research and robust methodologies, and developed expert teams in key locations worldwide, including in hard-to-reach markets such as China.
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