Original-Research: Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungs AG - from East Value Research GmbH
06.06.2025 / 11:24 CET/CEST
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Classification of East Value Research GmbH to Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungs AG
Company Name: Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungs AG ISIN: AT0000827209
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 1.12
Target price on sight of: 12-months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Adrian Kowollik
After reporting disappointing full-year 2024 results compared to our estimates from early April, Warimpex (WXF) delivered a solid set of numbers for Q1/25. On a comparable basis - excluding the Russian assets sold in Q4/24 - results were above the previous year across all levels. Q1/25 revenues benefited from the Mogilska 35 office building in Cracow, which is now fully occupied (31/12/2024: 71%). On the other hand, the 20.3% decline in revenues from the Hotel segment was, in our view, due to a generally weak hotel market in Germany and the cessation of payments from the city of Darmstadt for lodging Ukrainian refugees. This reduced the occupancy rate of WXF's greet hotel to 44%, down from 57% in the previous year. For Q2-Q4, we expect the trends observed in Q1/25 to continue. Additionally, management anticipates receiving the building permit for its Mogilska 31 residential project in Q3/25E, with construction expected to begin shortly thereafter. Warimpex estimates the project's total cost at c. EUR 30m, and we expect completion about 1.5 years after construction starts. Based on lower estimates and an updated peer-group-based FV (EUR 0.73 vs. EUR 0.68 previously), our valuation model yields a new 12-month PT (50% NNNAV, 50% peer group) of EUR 1.12 (prev. EUR 1.14). While we expect WXF to repay EUR 1.8m of a bond this year, bonds worth EUR 8.7m will be refinanced through a long-term, albeit more expensive, loan, which will likely increase WXF's interest expenses going forward.
In Q1/25, Warimpex generated revenues of EUR 5.4m (+9.1% y-o-y), an EBITDA of EUR 430k (+112.5%) and a net income (excl. one-offs) of EUR -1.3m (EUR -2.6m). Thereof, Investment properties contributed EUR 3.5m (+17.1% y-o-y, EBITDA margin of 44.6% vs. 43% in Q1/24), the Hotels segment EUR 1.2m (-20.3%, 3.3% vs. 12.3%) and Development & Services EUR 740k (+48.2%, -155.3% vs. -249.2%). Flat direct expenses led to a higher gross margin y-o-y (47% vs. 42.5% in Q1/24). Net income was positively affected by a higher net financial result and a tax refund of EUR 210k. As of 31/03/2025, net gearing equalled 192.5% (31/12/2024: 187%) and equity ratio 31.1% (31.8%). Poland now accounts for >60% of WXF's total revenues and 73% of its Gross Asset Value.
Based on our discussions with WXF's management, we expect the trends observed in Q1/25 to continue and have therefore reduced our 2025E revenue and EBITDA estimates by 27.1%-75.1%. While the weak economic environment is weighing on the German hotel business, Polish office rentals are expected to benefit from the country's projected GDP growth of 3.7% this year.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32818.pdf For additional information visit our website: https://eastvalueresearch.com/
Contact for questions:
Adrian Kowollik
Tel.: +49 30 20609082
E-Mail: ak@eastvalueresearch.com
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2152076 06.06.2025 CET/CEST
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