RBS raises copper 2009, 2010 forecasts; cuts aluminium

LONDON, April 23 (Reuters) - Royal Bank of Scotland has raised its 2009 and 2010 price forecasts for copper on expectations of continued demand from China, while cutting its forecasts for aluminium as turmoil continues in motoring sector.

RBS raised its copper forecasts to 2009 and 2010 to $4,200 a tonne and $5,500 a tonne, from previous forecasts of $3,525 and $4,500 respectively.

'Copper has emerged relatively unscathed and remains our most preferred base metal. A large surplus is likely this year but Chinese strategic stockpiling may absorb much of it,' RBS said in the note.

RBS cut its 2009 and 2010 aluminium forecasts to $1,550 tonnes and $1,875 tonnes, respectively, from $1,650 and $2,000.

'The light metal is economically geared with heavy exposure to the beleaguered transport and construction sectors. As a result, we forecast that demand will contract by 8 percent in 2009,' the note said.

RBS raised its silver price forecasts for 2009 and 2010 to $13.25 an ounce and $14.25 an ounce respectively, from predictions of $12.00 and $13.25 made in its January report.

'In the current environment of increased uncertainty, we believe that silver will be able to rise in tandem with gold through the 2009-2010 period, with the gold:silver ratio staying below 75,' it said in the report.

It left its forecasts for gold, platinum and palladium prices unchanged. The bank sees gold at $950 an ounce and $1,000 an ounce in 2009 and 2010 respectively, platinum at $1,200 and $1,400 in the same year and palladium at $250 and $350.



Table shows RBS price forecast changes for base metals and silver in 2009 and 2010.



2009 new 2009 old 2010 new 2010 0ld

$/tonne $/tonne $/tonne $/tonne

Aluminium 1,550 1,650 1,875 2,000

Copper 4,200 3,525 5,500 4,500

Nickel 11,575 11,850 13,250 13,250

Lead 1,340 1,275 1,550 1,550

Tin 12,250 12,750 14,625 15,000

Silver 3.25 12.00 14.25 13.25
(Reporting by Rebekah Curtis and Jan Harvey) Keywords: RBS FORECASTS/ ([e-mail]; [phone]; Reuters Messaging: [e-mail]) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.