NEW YORK, Dec 24 (Reuters) - The number of workers filing
new applications for jobless benefits fell last week to the
lowest level in more than 15 months, according to government
data on Thursday.
Story: Table:
New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods rose less than expected in November, held back by a drop in civilian aircraft orders, but surged after excluding transportation, a government report showed on Thursday.
Story: Table:
KEY POINTS: DURABLES * The Commerce Department said durable goods orders rose 0.2 percent after falling by an unrevised 0.6 percent in October. * Analysts polled by Reuters forecast orders rising 0.5 percent last month.
COMMENTS: KEN MAYLAND, PRESIDENT, CLEARVIEW ECONOMICS LLC, PEPPER PIKE, OHIO:
DURABLE GOODS: 'The details are reading better than the headline. Excluding transportation, companies look like they are re-ordering to replenish depleted inventories. It also looks like they are ordering to meet rising demand.
'Manufacturing is participating in this recovery after it fell harder than the rest of economy during the down phase.
'It seems pretty much a sure thing that we are going to have better growth in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter. I'm settling in a number in the 3.5 percent area.
MARC PADO, U.S. MARKET STRATEGIST, CANTOR FITZGERALD & CO., SAN FRANCISCO:
'The numbers were great -- 452,000 weekly claims is the lowest of the year -- continuing that trend down. It's critical, 500,000 is generally seen as zero jobs, so breaking below that level and staying below that level for the month of December, we might even see some job growth when we get that December jobs number and that is obviously a real plus to market sentiment.
'As far as the durable goods, I know the headline number was a little light but that ex-transportation number, not only up 2 percent -- they were looking for up 1 percent. So this is a great number on top of an upwardly revised number. When you take out the transportation -- durables are a volatile number anyway. Good way to end before the holidays.'
TOM PORCELLI, SENIOR ECONOMIST, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK:
'The durables numbers were definitely very strong. It's not enough just to look at what headline durables did and what durables ex trans did. In my mind that's not giving you a very well rounded picture.
'Look at what we call the core number: That is capital goods non-defense, excluding aircraft. When you look at those in both the new orders and the shipments category they were very strong. The shipments were what most people were expecting for the cap-ex.
'It is basically unwinding some of the sharp decline that we saw in October. No matter how you slice it this is a very good number.
'On jobless claims, we're going through a period of the year where the seasonal factors are very aggressive. I tend to think that around that time of the year you tend to get a bit more volatility and it's harder to take these numbers at face value. The headlines are certainly positive, but I'm skeptical because it's the holiday season.
'We're dealing with such thin markets. I don't think anyone's putting on any new risk today and I don't think these numbers are going to have any consequence for the markets.'
ROBERT DYE, SENIOR ECONOMIST, PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES, PITTSBURGH:
JOBLESS CLAIMS: 'It's another good number after creeping up last week. The downward trend continues. All evidence point to the healing in the labor market. I would not be surprise to see a positive net payroll number in December. That would be the first time in about two years.'
DURABLE GOODS: 'What we are seeing in manufacturing is a rebound in the auto sector. Auto production is ramping up. We see a rejuvenation in auto spreading.
'Boeing's Dreamliner will also have a long-term positive impact on manufacturing.
'Both of these series (durables and jobless claims) point to ongoing healing in the economy. They are all pointing to a better-than-expected GDP in the fourth quarter, likely in the 3.5 percent to 4.0 percent range. They are consistent with a forecast moderate recovery through 2010.'
DAN GREENHAUS, ANALYST, MILLER TABAK & CO., NEW YORK:
'The jobless claims number was better than expected, and its good news though there's a lot of seasonal issues that come into play in December. That adds to volatility. We should have a better picture of the jobless claims issue in January.
'More importantly, the durable goods order excluding aircraft was very healthy. Since that's our proxy for business spending, its encouraging to see it rise.'
MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures hold gains BONDS: U.S. Treasury debt prices hold slight losses DOLLAR: U.S. dollar trims losses
Keywords: USA MARKETS/DURABLES (Reporting by New York Treasuries Desk; +1-646 223-6300) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.
Story: Table:
New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods rose less than expected in November, held back by a drop in civilian aircraft orders, but surged after excluding transportation, a government report showed on Thursday.
Story: Table:
KEY POINTS: DURABLES * The Commerce Department said durable goods orders rose 0.2 percent after falling by an unrevised 0.6 percent in October. * Analysts polled by Reuters forecast orders rising 0.5 percent last month.
COMMENTS: KEN MAYLAND, PRESIDENT, CLEARVIEW ECONOMICS LLC, PEPPER PIKE, OHIO:
DURABLE GOODS: 'The details are reading better than the headline. Excluding transportation, companies look like they are re-ordering to replenish depleted inventories. It also looks like they are ordering to meet rising demand.
'Manufacturing is participating in this recovery after it fell harder than the rest of economy during the down phase.
'It seems pretty much a sure thing that we are going to have better growth in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter. I'm settling in a number in the 3.5 percent area.
MARC PADO, U.S. MARKET STRATEGIST, CANTOR FITZGERALD & CO., SAN FRANCISCO:
'The numbers were great -- 452,000 weekly claims is the lowest of the year -- continuing that trend down. It's critical, 500,000 is generally seen as zero jobs, so breaking below that level and staying below that level for the month of December, we might even see some job growth when we get that December jobs number and that is obviously a real plus to market sentiment.
'As far as the durable goods, I know the headline number was a little light but that ex-transportation number, not only up 2 percent -- they were looking for up 1 percent. So this is a great number on top of an upwardly revised number. When you take out the transportation -- durables are a volatile number anyway. Good way to end before the holidays.'
TOM PORCELLI, SENIOR ECONOMIST, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK:
'The durables numbers were definitely very strong. It's not enough just to look at what headline durables did and what durables ex trans did. In my mind that's not giving you a very well rounded picture.
'Look at what we call the core number: That is capital goods non-defense, excluding aircraft. When you look at those in both the new orders and the shipments category they were very strong. The shipments were what most people were expecting for the cap-ex.
'It is basically unwinding some of the sharp decline that we saw in October. No matter how you slice it this is a very good number.
'On jobless claims, we're going through a period of the year where the seasonal factors are very aggressive. I tend to think that around that time of the year you tend to get a bit more volatility and it's harder to take these numbers at face value. The headlines are certainly positive, but I'm skeptical because it's the holiday season.
'We're dealing with such thin markets. I don't think anyone's putting on any new risk today and I don't think these numbers are going to have any consequence for the markets.'
ROBERT DYE, SENIOR ECONOMIST, PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES, PITTSBURGH:
JOBLESS CLAIMS: 'It's another good number after creeping up last week. The downward trend continues. All evidence point to the healing in the labor market. I would not be surprise to see a positive net payroll number in December. That would be the first time in about two years.'
DURABLE GOODS: 'What we are seeing in manufacturing is a rebound in the auto sector. Auto production is ramping up. We see a rejuvenation in auto spreading.
'Boeing's Dreamliner will also have a long-term positive impact on manufacturing.
'Both of these series (durables and jobless claims) point to ongoing healing in the economy. They are all pointing to a better-than-expected GDP in the fourth quarter, likely in the 3.5 percent to 4.0 percent range. They are consistent with a forecast moderate recovery through 2010.'
DAN GREENHAUS, ANALYST, MILLER TABAK & CO., NEW YORK:
'The jobless claims number was better than expected, and its good news though there's a lot of seasonal issues that come into play in December. That adds to volatility. We should have a better picture of the jobless claims issue in January.
'More importantly, the durable goods order excluding aircraft was very healthy. Since that's our proxy for business spending, its encouraging to see it rise.'
MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures hold gains BONDS: U.S. Treasury debt prices hold slight losses DOLLAR: U.S. dollar trims losses
Keywords: USA MARKETS/DURABLES (Reporting by New York Treasuries Desk; +1-646 223-6300) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.