WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - After three years of unusually low storm activity, the United States is poised to experience more near-normal storms during the coming Atlantic hurricane season, US government scientists said in their long-term weather forecast.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, will most likely be near-normal, but forecast uncertainty in the climate signals that influence the formation of Atlantic storms make predicting this season particularly difficult.
NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of up to 16 tropical storms, of which at least 4 could become hurricanes, including major hurricanes. While a near-normal season is most likely with a 45 percent chance, there is also a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season. Included in the outlook is Hurricane Alex, a pre-season storm that formed over the far eastern Atlantic in January.
'This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it's difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development,' said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. 'However, a near-normal prediction for this season suggests we could see more hurricane activity than we've seen in the last three years, which were below normal,' he added.
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