CHICAGO, Dec. 28 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- In a year remembered for no landfalling Atlantic hurricanes -- following heavy landfalling hurricane activity in 2004 and 2005 -- global tropical activity was normal, according to a report issued by Impact Forecasting, LLC, a unit of Aon Corporation .
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The combined number of tropical cyclones for the Northern Hemisphere was 31 in 2006, equal to the long-term average. However, more intense tropical cyclones (categories 3, 4 and 5) exceeded historical levels by 45 percent. Less intense tropical cyclones were below the long-term average by 33 percent.
2006 Tropical Activity vs. Long-Term Averages
Saffir- East West
Simpson Northern Atlantic Pacific Pacific
Scale Hemisphere Basin Basin Basin
Avg. 2006 Chg. % Avg. 2006 Chg. Avg. 2006 Chg. Avg. 2006 Chg.
1 & 2 17.9 12 -5.9 -33% 5.1 3 -2.1 4.9 5 +0.1 7.9 4 -3.9
3, 4 & 5 13.1 19 +5.9 +45% 1.1 2 +0.9 2.5 6 +3.5 9.5 11 +1.5
TOTAL 31.0 31 0 0% 6.2 5 -1.2 7.4 11 +3.6 17.4 15 -2.4
While significant attention has been devoted to the fact that no hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2006, hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin lagged historical norms by only 1.2 events. Consistent with expectations for periods with above-average sea surface temperatures, more intense hurricanes (categories 3, 4 and 5) were above average by 0.9 events (81 percent), and less intense hurricanes (categories 1 and 2) were below average by 2.1 events (41 percent). Using historical hurricane landfall data for the United States when higher sea surface temperatures were present, the likelihood that no hurricanes would make landfall (similar to what occurred in 2006) is 25 percent.
Activity in the eastern Pacific Ocean was greater year-over-year, with 18 named storms, up from 15 in 2005. The eastern Pacific experienced six intense hurricanes (categories 3, 4 and 5) in 2006 versus a long-term average of 2.5 per year with Hurricane Ioke reaching Category 5 status in August.
The activity in the western Pacific was down slightly with 15 typhoons versus the long-term average of 17.4. However, the number of intense storms was above average with 11 storms versus a long-term average of 9.5.
"As evidenced by the recent El Nino patterns in the Pacific and resulting effects to the Atlantic basin, continued vigilance is required on a global basis. This study reinforces the need for catastrophe modeling, and the focus needs to remain on the big picture, rather than on activity in a single year or a single region," said Steve Jakubowski, executive vice president and chief operating officer with Aon Re's Impact Forecasting unit.
Aon Re's Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report: 2006, which summarizes the world's climate and natural catastrophes in 2006, details the physical and economic effects of -- and losses of life caused by -- significant weather activity around the world. The top catastrophe losses of 2006 are summarized in the table below.
Top 10 Catastrophe Losses for 2006
Event Date Event Type Region Location Damage Estimates
4/13-4/15 Severe Weather United States Great Lakes, Ohio $3.4+ billion
Valley, Southeast
7/9-7/14 Tropical Storm Asia Philippines, $3.3+ billion
Bilis Taiwan, China
5/31 Earthquake Asia Indonesia - Java $3.1+ billion
Island
4/7-4/8 Severe Weather United States Great Plains, $2.6+ billion
Midwest, Southeast
6/1-6/30 Flood Asia China $2.5+ billion
9/10-9/17 Typhoon Asia Southern Japan, $2.0+ billion
Shanshan South Korea
3/11-3/12 Severe Weather United States Southern Plains, $1.8+ billion
Middle MS Valley
8/5-8/10 Super Typhoon Asia China $1.6+ billion
Saomai
8/23-8/24 Severe Weather United States Northern Great $1.1+ billion
Plains, Midwest
12/25 Earthquake Asia Taiwan $1.0+ billion
The full report is available at http://www.aon.com/ and at http://www.impactforecasting.com/ .
Media contact:
Rahsaan Johnson
312.381.2684
Aon Corporation ( http://www.aon.com/ ) is a leading provider of risk management services, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, human capital and management consulting, and specialty insurance underwriting. Aon has 45,000 employees in 500 offices in more than 120 countries. Backed by broad resources, industry knowledge and technical expertise, Aon professionals help a wide range of clients develop effective risk management and workforce productivity solutions.
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