California Economy Holds Steady in January, Reports the Comerica Bank California Economic Activity Index

DALLAS, March 11 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index was unchanged in January, at a level of 102. The January Index held below the October peak for a third consecutive month, but still is up 10 points, or 11.4 percent, from the March 2009 cyclical low. The January reading also is up four points from the average for all of 2009.

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"Excluding employment, our Index has shown broad-based improvement since last March," said Dana Johnson, Chief Economist at Comerica Bank. "In January, however, gains in exports and production were muddled by a drag from the Index's employment, retail, and travel components. Although our Index has stalled this winter after sharp gains last summer, it still appears to me that the California economy is in the early stages of a moderate recovery. If, as I expect, employment gains emerge in the next few months, I will become much more confident that a sustained private-sector expansion is taking hold."

It should be noted that a compositional change has been made to the California Economic Activity Index. Employment is now measured by nonfarm payrolls from the establishment survey rather than the employment estimate generated in the household survey. Additionally, seasonal factors estimated by Comerica have been revised as part of our semi-annual process. A complete Index history reflecting these changes is available upon request.

The California Economic Activity Index equally weights nine, seasonally-adjusted coincident indicators of real economic activity. These indicators reflect activity in the manufacturing, tourism, travel and trade sectors, as well as job growth and consumer outlays. The Index levels represent a three-month moving average, used to smooth monthly volatility. The Index is benchmarked so that 2008 equals 100.

Comerica Incorporated is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth & Institutional Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of $59.2 billion as of December 31, 2009.

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Comerica Bank

CONTACT: Media, Dana Johnson, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist,
[phone], [e-mail], or Data, Meaghan Derrick, Research
Assistant, [phone], [e-mail], both of Comerica Bank

Web Site: http://www.comerica.com/