GOP Challenger Randy Altschuler Leads Bishop in Latest Poll

NEW YORK, Oct. 13, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ --Republican challenger Randy Altschuler has taken a three-point lead over five-time Democratic Congressman Tim Bishop in the most recent poll in the race for the District 1 Congressional seat on the tip of Long Island. The poll of four hundred likely voters in New York's First Congressional District was conducted by the firm of Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, Inc. of Alexandria, VA. The hotly contested race is one of the top ten congressional races where the Republicans have targeted a Democratic opponent. The poll was conducted for Prosperity First Inc., a privately funded congressional PAC. Attached are further details of the poll:

CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM

TO:	Prosperity First PAC
FROM:	Tony Fabrizio
RE:	Ballot Results -- NY CD 1 Survey
DATE:	October 12, 2012

Based on the findings from our recently completed survey of 400 Likely 2012 Voters (1) in New York's 1^st Congressional District:

Altschuler holds lead over Bishop.

"If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, and the candidates were (ROTATE) Randy Altschuler, the candidate of the Republican, Conservative and Independence Parties and Tim Bishop, the candidate of the Democratic Party, for whom would you vote? (IF ALSCHULER/BISHOP, ASK: And would you say definitely ALSCHULER/BISHOP or just probably ALSCHULER/BISHOP?)

IF "UNDECIDED" ASK:
If you had to choose today, which candidate are you leaning towards - (ROTATE) Randy Altschuler or Tim Bishop?"

		Opinion	Heard
	Overall	Of	Of
		Both	Both
TOTAL ALTSCHULER	49	54	51
TOTAL BISHOP	46	44	44
Firm undecided (DO NOT READ)	5	1	5

Overall, Altschuler holds a slight 3-point lead over Bishop. Among the 91% of voters who have heard of both candidates, Altschuler widens his lead to 7 points. Most problematic for Bishop is that among the 71% of voters who have a firm opinion of both candidates, Altschuler's lead widens further to 10 points putting him well over 50%.

(1) Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates conducted an 400 sample statewide survey of likely 2012 voters in NY CD 1 between October 10 & 11 that included both landline and cell phones. Professionally trained interviewers conducted the interviewing and the sample frame was stratified to reflect actual turnout in Presidential elections. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.9% at the 95% confidence interval.

Key Survey Demographics:

Political Party:

								Oct
								11
	Republican							39
	Democrat							30
	Independence							5
	Conservative							4
	Working Families							-
	Not registered or affiliated with any political party							18
	Other (DO NOT READ)							1
	DK/Refused (DO NOT READ)							3

Age:

			Oct 11
	18-34		15
	35-44		12
	45-54		20
	55-64		25
	65+		25
	Refused (DO NOT READ)		3

Gender:

						Oct 11
	TOTAL MALE					48
	TOTAL FEMALE					52
	Female, working outside the home					26
	Female, homemaker					20
	Female/Refused (DO NOT READ)					5

Area/Township:

		Oct 11
	Smithtown	14
	Brookhaven	61
	East End Towns	25
	Riverhead	5
	Islip	5
	Southold	4
	East Hampton	3
	Southampton	8

SOURCE Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, Inc.