LONDON, March 9, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --
The Conservatives would lose 93 seats to Labour in an election tomorrow, according to new polling in marginal constituencies by Lord Ashcroft.
The research, based on interviews with over 19,000 voters in 213 constituencies throughout Great Britain, suggests an 8 per cent swing to Labour in the Tories' most vulnerable seats. This is lower than the national swing suggested by headline voting intention polls - partly because Labour are finding it hard to break through in Conservative seats in London and parts of the South.
Of the Liberal Democrat seats in England and Wales, Nick Clegg would lose 17 to the Conservatives and 13 to Labour - including two where Labour finished third in 2010.
Lord Ashcroft unveiled the findings at the Conservative Home 'Victory 2015' conference in London on Saturday morning. The full details are available on his website, LordAshcroftPolls.com. The main findings are as follows:
- Labour would win 93 of the 109 most marginal Conservative seats (needing a swing of up to 11%) in which they are in second place. The swing to Labour is biggest in the Thames Estuary, the Midlands and some Northern seats, but lower in Southern Towns and Suburbs and in London.
- There is a 5% swing from the Liberal Democrats to the Conservatives in Lib Dem-held seats in England and Wales where the Tories are second. In English and Welsh Lib Dem seats where Labour are second, there is a 17% swing to Labour.
- In total Labour would gain 109 seats, giving Ed Miliband 367 MPs in the House of Commons, an overall majority of 84. This compares to a Labour majority of 114 that would be achieved on a "uniform swing" according to current national polls.
Emphasising that the poll represented a snapshot not a prediction, Lord Ashcroft said:
"I don't want to see a Labour majority of 4, let alone 84. But I hope this puts the challenge into some sort of perspective. We have a long way to go to hold onto the seats we gained last time, let alone pick up many more. But things are slightly less grim than the headline polls suggest, and we have everything to play for."
For the results in full please go to http://multivu.prnewswire.com/mnr/prne/operations/Lord_Ashcroft_poll_of_marginal_seats.pdf
Notes to Editors
- 19,119 adults in 213 constituencies were interviewed online between 29 January and 18 February 2013. Visit LordAshcroftPolls.com to see the results in full.
- Lord Ashcroft KCMG PC is an international businessman, author and philanthropist. He is founder and Chairman of the Board of Crimestoppers, a member of the Board of the Imperial War Museum and a Trustee of the Imperial War Museum Foundation, Chairman of the Trustees of Ashcroft Technology Academy, Chancellor of Anglia Ruskin University and Treasurer of the International Democrat Union. From 2005 to 2010 he was Deputy Chairman of the Conservative Party.
- His political books and research papers include Smell The Coffee (2005), Minority Verdict (2010), Project Blueprint (2011 & 2012), The Leadership Factor (2011), Degrees of Separation (2012), The Armed Forces & Society (2012), Blue Collar Tories (2012), Project Red Alert (2012), They're Thinking What We're Thinking: Understanding The UKIP Temptation (2012), and What Are The Liberal Democrats For? (2013).
