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Basilea Pharmaceutica AG (BSLN-CH): Cresemba shines in H1/2018 results
17-Aug-2018 / 09:14 GMT/BST
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*Published to the market and investors on 17th August 2018 @ 8.52am (London
time).*
*Basilea Pharmaceutica AG (BSLN-CH): Cresemba shines in H1/2018 results*
*Recommendation: OUTPERFORM*
*Target Price: CHF112 (increased from CHF108)*
*Current Price: CHF60.70 (cob on 16th August 2018)*
*KEY TAKEAWAY*
The key update at the H1 results was an upgrade to 2018E revenue guidance to
reflect stronger than expected sales growth of antifungal Cresemba
(isavuconazole) in the US and Europe, prompting us to lift 2018E - 2020E
revenues by up to 17%. While its commercialisation partners continue to grow
sales of Cresemba and antibiotic Zevtera (ceftobiprole) in existing and new
regions, Basilea has been focused on advancing and expanding its pipeline to
pave the way for sustained long-term growth. We increase our target price per
share to CHF112 (from CHF108) and reiterate our OUTPERFORM recommendation, as
the current share price does not reflect the full potential of both marketed
and clinical-stage pipeline assets, in our view.
*Strong H1/2018 results reflect strong Cresemba growth in the US and Europe*
Basilea reported H1 revenues of CHF59.9m, +30% YoY, driven largely by
Cresemba, which reached in-market sales of $120m in the year to 31 March 2018,
reflecting continued strong growth in the US, where it is marketed by
Astellas, but also Europe, where Pfizer launched in new regions. Cresemba and
Zevtera together generated revenues of CHF27.8m, with deferred revenue from
Toctino (CHF18.8m) and reimbursements from BARDA (CHF13.2m) accounting for the
remainder. The momentum is expected to continue following the approvals of
Cresemba and Zevtera in LatAm (Grupo Biotoscana) and MENA (Hikma), plus new
approvals and launches in the next 12 - 18 months.
*Raising revenue forecasts by 17% in FY2018E and 10% in FY2019E*
In light of Cresemba's strong performance in the US and Europe, Basilea
increased FY2018E revenue outlook to CHF120m - CHF130m (from CHF105m -
CHF115m), based on higher expected contributions from Cresemba and Zevtera of
CHF75m - CHF85m (prev. CHF60m - CHF65m). We therefore increased FY2018E and
FY2019E revenues to CHF127m and CHF143m, respectively, and remain confident
that the top line will grow next year despite the loss of deferred revenue
from Toctino (c.CHF24m in 2018E). Our operating loss estimate for 2018E is
unchanged at c.CHF30m and in line with revised guidance of CHF25m - CHF35m
(prev. CHF10m - CHF20m), as increases to R&D are offset by higher revenues and
lower SG&A.
*Next 12 - 18 months to deliver key data points from expanded pipeline*
Key late-stage pipeline developments include: (1) start of two US Ph III
trials (skin infections ["ABSSSI"] and S. aureus bacteraemia) for
ceftobiprole, (2) in-licensing of panFGFR kinase inhibitor derazantinib, in a
registrational Ph II trial for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma ("iCCA"), (3)
start of Ph III trial for isavuconazole in Japan. We look forward to multiple
data points in the next 12 - 18 months, particularly (1) the interim analysis
for the derazantinib Ph II trial in iCCA in H1/2019E, and (2) top-line results
for the ceftobiprole Ph III trial in ABSSSI in H2/2019E.
Kind regards,
Brigitte de Lima, PhD, CFA | Analyst
goetzpartners Healthcare Research Team | Research Team
goetzpartners securities Limited
The Stanley Building, 7 Pancras Square, London, N1C 4AG, England, UK.
T +44 (0) 203 859 7725 | healthcareresearch@goetzpartners.com /
brigitte.delima@goetzpartners.com
www.goetzpartnerssecurities.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 17, 2018 04:14 ET (08:14 GMT)
