Edison Investment Research - Oil & gas - Vermilion Energy: Vermilion Energy offers a geographically diverse production base, the ability to fund an 8.1% dividend yield and a forecast FY19 c C$530m capital programme, all achievable even at realised commodity prices c 3% below our base case (WTI US$56.1/bbl, Brent US$62.8/bbl). We adjust our FY19 and FY20 forecasts to reflect lower short-term commodity price expectations (based on the latest EIA forecasts of 12 March 2019). EIA's FY19 WTI moves from US$64.9/bbl to US$56.1/bbl (-14%), driving down our forecast FY19 FFO from C$1,200m to C$982m (-18%), comfortably above the $954m we estimate is required to cover dividend, maintenance and growth capex. Our valuation falls from C$54.5/share to C$47.5/share, based on a blend of P/CF, EV/EBIDAX, DDM, and FCF (plus growth) multiples. The valuation remains highly sensitive to commodity price assumptions. We provide a sensitivity to these key inputs in this note.
ISIN: CA9237251058Den vollständigen Artikel lesen ...
ISIN: CA9237251058Den vollständigen Artikel lesen ...