Despite our last published FY19 forecasts reflecting a more conservative production ramp-up than management guidance, SDX's guidance revisions have resulted in a further downgrade to our short-term cash flow forecasts and NAV. We reduce FY19e production from 4.3kboed to 3.4kboed (-21%) and project more moderate growth in SDX's Morocco gas demand with an associated RENAV impact of -42%. Key drivers of management's downgrade include lower Sebou gas demand growth, a higher than anticipated water cut at North West Gemsa and a delay to production ramp-up at South Disouq. Our valuation falls from RENAV 86.5p/share to 49.8p/share (-42%), while our core NAV (producing assets and South Disouq) falls from 70.1p/share to 45.0p/share (-36%). Based on our latest estimates, we expect SDX to end FY19 with c $4.9m of net cash on the balance sheet.Den vollständigen Artikel lesen ...