goetzpartners securities Limited
Abivax SA (ABVX-FR): Ready to deal with inflammation
25-Jun-2019 / 15:15 GMT/BST
*Free to access research and investor meetings in a post-MiFID2 world.*
*This research report is intended for use only by persons who qualify as
professional investors or eligible counterparties (institutional investors) in
the applicable jurisdiction, and not by any private individuals or other
persons who qualify as retail clients.*
*Published to the market and investors on 25th June 2019 @ 7.38am (BST). *
*Abivax SA *
*Recommendation: OUTPERFORM*
*Target Price: EUR 31.30 (increased from EUR 28.80)*
*Current Price: EUR 7.95 (CoB on 24th June 2019) *
*KEY TAKEAWA**Y*
+--------------------------------------------------------------+
|Focussed on identification and exploitation of regulators of |
|immunity and inflammation, Abivax has two major products in |
|clinical trials. With Phase 2a efficacy on a par with recently|
|approved tofacitinib, ABX464 shows sustained benefit in |
|ulcerative colitis ("UC") without the safety concerns of JAK |
|or anti-TNF drugs. Moving into confirmatory Phase 2b for UC |
|and Phase 2a in Crohn's and rheumatoid arthritis ("RA"), |
|ABX464 promises a meaningful share of the $70bn |
|anti-inflammatory market and a substantial licensing agreement|
|by 2020E. Entering Phase 1/2, ABX196 is a powerful activator |
|of iNKT cells with potential to extend the benefits of PD-1 / |
|PD-L1 immune checkpoint inhibitors ("ICI"). Sustained by ICIs |
|iNKT cells act directly on cancer cells as well as promote the|
|anti-tumour activity of key ICI-activated cells; a strong |
|rational for synergy. Funded until Q1/2020E, we believe the |
|ABX464 data provide a strong basis for licensing to provide |
|development funding thereafter. We reiterate our OUTPERFORM |
|and increase our TP to EUR31.30 (from EUR28.80). |
| |
|Anti-inflammatory benefits compare well to current drugs - |
|With healing and clinical improvement in UC on a par with |
|tofacitinib, six- and nine-month data from the Phase 2a |
|extension study indicate that ABX464 clinical benefits are |
|sustained. We are optimistic that a full assessment scheduled |
|for 12 months will show continued healing. |
| |
|*Safe and well tolerated - *With >200 patients treated in UC |
|and HIV, ABX464 appears safe and well tolerated with no |
|evidence of the infections and serious issues associated with |
|anti-TNF or small molecule drugs like tofacitinib. The |
|12-month Phase 2a extension study has now been extended to 24 |
|months based on ABX464's safety and efficacy. |
| |
|*Further data and partnering expected - *A dose-ranging Phase |
|2b trial in 232 patients aims to confirm the benefits of |
|ABX464 in UC with PoC Phase 2a trials planned in Crohn's and |
|RA all reporting 2020E. Abivax is optimistic of securing a |
|licensing / development partner for ABX464 by Q1/2020E. |
| |
|*Large unmet need in substantial market - *Although anti-TNF |
|drugs have transformed inflammatory therapy, 30% - 40% of |
|patients fail or cease to respond. There is a need for a safe |
|effective orally available alternative. |
| |
|*ABX196 promises real synergy with checkpoint inhibitors - |
|*The anti-tumour action of iNKT cells and their potential |
|synergy with PD-1 / PD-L1 immune checkpoint inhibition is well|
|established. A well characterised iNKT cell activator, ABX196 |
|has potential that sets it apart from the myriad of other ICI |
|combinations as it moves into Phase I / II trials with |
|nivolumab. |
| |
|*Under-valued at current levels - *Currently funded through |
|Q1/2020E, the company aims to secure long term funding through|
|though ABX464 partnering. We are optimistic that this will be |
|achieved based on the strength of the UC Phase 2a data. DCF |
|analysis indicates a current valuation of EUR31.30 rising to >|
|EUR50 / share with PoC in Crohn's and RA. |
+--------------------------------------------------------------+
Kind regards,
Chris Redhead | Analyst
goetzpartners Healthcare Research Team | Research Team
goetzpartners securities Limited
The Stanley Building, 7 Pancras Square, London, N1C 4AG, England, UK.
T +44 (0) 203 859 7725 | T +44 (0) 203 859 7728 |
chris.redhead@goetzpartners.com / healthcareresearch@goetzpartners.com /
londonoffice@goetzpartners.com
www.goetzpartnerssecurities.com [1]
goetzpartners securities LinkedIn page [2]
Registered in England No. 04684144.
Managing Directors: Dr. Stephan Goetz and Ulrich Kinzel.
*goetzpartners securities Limited - Team Members*
Senior Management - Ulrich Kinzel, Brigitte de Lima and Paul W. Dunne.
Equity Research Analysts - Brigitte de Lima, Chris Redhead, Martin Piehlmeier
and Kieron Banerjee.
Equity Sales - Danny De jong.
Corporate Finance - Ulrich Kinzel, Wolf Dornbusch and Youchen Xin.
Corporate Access - Tanya Tracey and Danny De jong.
Compliance & Research Production - Paul W. Dunne.
Click here [3] to see our privacy policy.
GPSL has a formal client relationship with Abivax SA.
GPSL publishes and distributes "Corporate Issuer Sponsored" Research. Our
Corporate Issuer Sponsored Research and investor meetings (e.g. NDRs, 1 to 1
meetings) are free to access and attend and is not classified as an inducement
in a post-MiFID2 world, this is because the issuer is paying GPSL. GPSL does
not offer any execution or market making services. This is a marketing
communication as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA"). The
information herein is considered to be an acceptable minor non-monetary
benefit as defined under FCA COBS 2.3A19(5).
If our contractual relationship with clients ceases, then please be advised
that we will no longer publish equity research on the specific client and any
recipients of our equity research publications should not rely on our
forecasts / valuation that have previously been published in the last full
company research publication. Please note that GPSL will not publish a
cessation of coverage notice to the market. Also, in accordance with the
provision of MiFID2 - if our clients are not contractually paying GPSL to
write and publish equity research, then we will not publish any future equity
research publications to the market on the issuer until all of our unpaid fees
have been paid.
In accordance with the General Data Protection Regulation ("GDPR [4]") - if
you would like to be removed / unsubscribed from our CRM (also please note
that you are free to contact GPSL at any time in the future to have your
e-mail subscription amended), please e-mail:
londonoffice@goetzpartners.com
About GPSL [1]: goetzpartners securities Limited is a member of the
goetzpartners group, and a leading pan European investment bank and research
company. We bring together a wide range of expertise, insights and innovations
to advance the interests of our clients around the world. The fast-changing
environment brings challenges for businesses and investors. Research
innovation, digital transformation and disruptive business ideas reshuffle the
corporate world at a relentless pace. Our sector knowledge and our global
footprint bring together corporate intelligence and a deep understanding of
the industry with a wide network of top decision makers. These collective
insights help our clients to stay at the leading edge of change.
This research report is intended for use only by persons who qualify as
professional investors or eligible counterparties (institutional investors) in
the applicable jurisdiction, and not by any private individuals or other
persons who qualify as retail clients.
This communication (including any attachments) from goetzpartners securities
Limited ("GPSL") is confidential and may contain information which is
proprietary, privileged or otherwise legally protected against unauthorised
use or disclosure. If you receive this communication in error or are not the
intended recipient of this communication, please delete and destroy all copies
in your possession, notify the sender that you have received this
communication, and note that any review or dissemination of, or the taking of
any action in reliance on this communication is expressly prohibited. GPSL
shall not be liable for the improper or incomplete transmission of the
information contained in this communication nor for any delay in its receipt
or damage to your system. GPSL does not guarantee that the integrity of this
communication has been maintained nor that this communication is free of
viruses, interceptions or interference and makes no warranties in relation to
these matters. This is not an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell
securities or investment products, or an official confirmation. GPSL record
electronic and phone communications in accordance with FCA and MiFID2
regulations, they will be monitored for regulatory and training purposes. GPSL
[5] is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority of the
United Kingdom (Firm Reference Number: 225563).
Click on the following link for the GPSL MiFID2 Investor Guidance Notice [6]
GPSL Equity Research publications are available on the following aggregators
and via news distribution circuits (For Institutional Use Only): AlphaMetry
[7], AlphaSense, Bloomberg (GOET), Capital IQ, EQS, FACTSET, ResearchFN [8],
Research Tree [9], RNS Reach, Sentieo [10] and Thomson Reuters.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
June 25, 2019 10:15 ET (14:15 GMT)
